Koerner’s Week 13 NFL Power Ratings: Best Bets Packers-Giants, Jets-Bengals, Browns-Steelers

Like every week, I'll use my projected spreads and over/unders to identify the best NFL bets, so we'll identify my favorite picks for Week 13 below.

Here are the games I'll hit on:

• Packers at Giants: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
• Jets at Bengals: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
• Browns at Steelers: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday

Note that I highlight differences in teams' actual record vs. their Pythagorean expectation (which you can learn more about here).

Now let's dig in.

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants

Current odds: Packers -6.5; 42.5
My Projections: Packers -5.5; 48

The Packers are 6.5–point road favorites, getting more than 80% of the action and have a -3.4 Pythagorean rating differential with the Giants.

But even with the significant action on the Packers, the line hasn't budged. It's very likely there's been some significant sharp action that's preventing books to move the line up to a key number like 7.

This is a spot where we could see Saquon Barkley snap his recent slump. The Packers defense has been vulnerable against the run, coughing up 5.1 yards per carry since Week 7. And while they're certainly the better team, the Giants should be able to keep it close enough that the clear value lies with +6.5.

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals

Current odds: Jets -3; 43
My Projections: Jets -2.5; 42

Ryan Finley has been benched for Andy Dalton this week. I'm not sure we’ve heard the exact reason for this move yet, but it's clear that Finley is not quite ready for NFL action.

I would speculate that the Bengals are simply trying to avoid going 0-16. They could then go back to Finley after they win a game and continue to tank for the top draft pick in 2020. This matchup, along with a Week 16 date at home against the Dolphins, are likely their only chances to avoid going 0-16, so I expect them to be more motivated this week as a result.

The Jets were getting more than 80% of the action before the QB change. I've been harping on them as buy-low candidates for the past few weeks, but it appears the public has finally caught up.

It's also worth pointing out that the Bengals have a +2.2 edge in Pythagorean differential with the Jets. As soon as Cincinnati announced Dalton would start, I fired a bet on the Bengals at +4. It's only dropped to +3, which is very odd considering Dalton is worth more than a point over Finley. I have the drop-off closer to 2.5 to 3 points, which is why I have the Bengals as +2.5 now.

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

Current odds: Browns -2.5; 39
My Projections: PK; 40

This is a rematch of the Thursday Night Football showdown that ended in a melee, multiple fines and an indefinite suspension of Myles Garrett. Garrett is a huge loss for the Browns defense — you could even argue he's worth a half to a full point against the spread, so I'm a bit shocked to see the Browns as 2.5-point favorites here as a result.

The decision to bench Mason Rudolph in favor of Devlin Hodges is more of a lateral move that isn't impacting my Pittsburgh power rating. The Steelers are likely to have a fairly run-heavy conservative game plan and lean on their defense to keep this game close.

Mike Tomlin usually does well coming up with winning game plans in these spots and has now gone 33-18 (64.7%) ATS as an underdog in his career. As of writing, 74% of the action has come in on the Browns, driving this number up from a pick 'em to -2.5. It's worth seeing if the market sends this line up to 3 before backing the Steelers.

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]