- Using The Action Network's NFL Power Ratings, we look at the teams bettors are overrating and underrating in Week 6.
- Comparing our Power Ratings to current point spreads reveals the biggest differences in the perception of the betting market to real value.
The betting markets and The Action Network’s NFL Power Rankings are in agreement. The oddsmakers list the Los Angeles Rams (+175), New England Patriots (+600) and Kansas City Chiefs (+600) as the favorites to win the Super Bowl.
They are also the top teams in our Power Rankings. LA has the highest rating of 6.4 – meaning it would be favored by 6.4 points against an average team on a neutral field.
New England and KC are the only other teams with ratings of 5 or more points.
Los Angeles is a touchdown favorite in Denver, and New England and Kansas City face each other in Foxborough on Sunday Night Football. According to the power ratings, each team is properly priced in its Week 6 matchup.
However, by comparing the projected point spread created using The Action Network’s NFL Power Ratings to the consensus spread number, we can determine which teams the public is overrating and underrating.
Overrated Week 6 Teams
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings
- NFL Power Rating spread: +11.8
- Current Spread: +10
- Time: Oct. 14, 1 p.m. ET
At 1-4, the Cardinals are tied for the worst record in the NFL. However, the betting market is showing Arizona some love.
The line has moved a full point in the Cards’ direction. This is a bit surprising since the Vikings upset the Eagles as 3.5-point underdogs in Philly on Sunday.
Arizona has looked more competent since dumping Sam Bradford and turning the offense over to rookie quarterback Josh Rosen, but this matchup is the most mispriced one of Week 6.
Seattle Seahawks at Oakland Raiders
- NFL Power Rating spread: -1.6
- Current Spread: -3
- Time: Oct. 14, 1 p.m. ET
How are lines set? Multiple factors are considered but one of the most important is public perception. Last week, bettors watched the Raiders lose (again) and the Seahawks almost upset the Rams — the best team in football.
Considering each team’s recent performance, oddsmakers are expecting public bettors to back Pete Carroll’s team and they have. A majority of spread tickets is currently being wagered on the Seahawks as road favorites.
However, this line is inflated, and Sports Insights’ Bet Signals have triggered a sharp money indicator on the Raiders.
Underrated Week 6 Teams
Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens
- NFL Power Rating spread: +1.9
- Current Spread: +3
- Time: Oct. 14, 4:25 p.m. ET
There has been strong line movement in this game. After opening as a pick’ em, Baltimore is now a 3-point favorite on the road in Tennessee.
The Titans were a popular play in Week 5. At kickoff, 60% of spread tickets were on Marcus Mariota & Co., moving the line from -3.5 to -6. The Buffalo Bills crushed bettors’ spirits (mine included) by not only covering, but winning outright.
Underdogs are 42-35-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, and home teams getting points, such as the Titans, have gone 16-7 ATS (per Bet Labs). Will the trend continue on Sunday?
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers
- NFL Power Rating spread: -10.6
- Current Spread: -9.5
- Time: Oct. 15, 8:15 p.m. ET
Mistakes cost Green Bay last week. Kicker Mason Crosby missed a career-high four field goals and an extra point while Aaron Rodgers lost two fumbles for only the third time in his 14-year career.
It was ugly but those mistakes aren’t likely to repeat. The line opened Packers -9 and has ticked up to -9.5. In Lambeau, Rodgers is 46-24-3 ATS in the regular season, covering the spread by an average of 4.6 points per game.