Koerner’s 2019 NFL Power Ratings: Teams Trending Up, Down After Draft
Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Josh Allen
- Sean Koerner runs through his updated 2019 NFL Power Ratings, featuring one team that saw its projections fall and three that saw theirs rise.
While there wasn’t much movement in my power ratings following the 2019 NFL Draft, there are four teams that have seen slight adjustments since my previous update following the mid-April schedule release — some shifted because of draft-related moves while others simply needed slight tweaks.
Before we run through those four below, let’s recap how to use my power ratings.
Their primary utility during the season is to project weekly spreads using this formula: (Team A’s Power Rating – Team B’s Power Rating) + Team A’s Home Field Advantage = Spread. (HFA is typically worth 2-3 points but varies by team.) But in the run up to the season, we can also use them for season-long projections such as win totals.
So, without further ado, let’s take a look at the four teams that have seen their power ratings change in my latest update.
Miami Dolphins ⬇️
- Power rating: Fell from -5.5 to -6
- Win total projection: Fell from 4.5 to 4.4
I consider Josh Rosen to be roughly a one-point downgrade to Miami’s power rating in games he starts over Ryan Fitzpatrick.
The Dolphins are clearly rolling the dice to see if Rosen can hit his potential as a 2018 first-round pick before eyeing their potential quarterback of the future in next year’s draft, so I’m guessing they start him fairly early in the season. If he flops, it’s only going to improve their chances of landing the first overall pick in 2020. (Tua Tagovailoa?) And if it gets real bad, they can always put Fitzpatrick in to make their offense at least a bit more exciting.
Miami will likely win somewhere between three and six games in 2019.
New York Jets ⬆️
- Power rating: Rose from -2 to -1.5
- Win total projection: Rose from 6.6 to 7.3
The Jets ended up keeping the third overall pick to draft defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, who will be a great contributor right away.
But this uptick in their power rating isn’t based solely on their first-round selection — it’s more of a correction.
The Jets are set up to be one of the most improved teams this season. Sam Darnold could break out in Year 2, and given that they have the NFL’s second- easiest schedule according to my power ratings, it’s not crazy to think they could be in the wild-card hunt down the stretch.
Buffalo Bills ⬆️
- Power rating: Rose from -3.5 to -2.5
- Win total projection: Rose from 5.9 to 6.7
The Bills have made move after move this offseason to improve their roster and they had a fantastic draft that helped fill even more team needs.
Josh Allen is a very boom-or-bust quarterback heading into his second season, so their team rating could fluctuate quite a bit based on how he performs. But they’ve surrounded him with weapons in the passing game, and even bolstered their running back depth recently by adding T.J. Yeldon in free agency then drafting Devin Singletary.
It’ll be critical for Buffalo to establish a running game that ideally doesn’t against feature Allen as its leading rusher; the Bills have to keep him healthy.
Washington Redskins ⬆️
- Power rating: Rose from -3.5 to -2.5
- Win total projection: Rose from 5.6 to 6.2
The Redskins drafted players who can contribute right away in quarterback Dwayne Haskins and edge defender Montez Sweat. They were also able to snag running back Bryce Love and wide receiver Kelvin Harmon late, which really solidified their case as having arguably the best draft of any team.
Still, their one-point jump in power rating isn’t based solely on the draft; it’s another correction. Reuben Foster recently found out he’s not going to face any sort of suspension this season, meaning the Redskins’ gamble on him has paid off off (so far). This is also an underrated roster that will face one of the easier schedules (26th) this season.
Washington might not be a playoff team quite yet, but could offer value on the spread quite a bit this season.