Freedman’s Favorite Prop Bet (Jan. 5): Will Deshaun Watson Eclipse 40 Rushing Yards?
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Deshaun Watson
- Matthew Freedman is kicking off 2019 with a new series featuring his favorite prop bet of each day.
- On Saturday, he looks at Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson's rushing prop of 39.5 yards.
I had a great 2018 betting on props, thanks primarily to our FantasyLabs Tools, so for 2019 I will have a quick-n’-dirty daily piece in which I highlight my favorite prop for the day.
Why Betting on Props Is Fun
In 2018, I bet on thousands of props across a variety of sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, NASCAR, golf (PGA and European Tour) and eSports (League of Legends). I even placed bets on pop culture events, such as the Academy Awards, the Grammy Awards and Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest.
Was I successful with all of them? No. And that’s why I almost never bet on any kind of prop related to darts anymore. Almost never.
But overall I had success last year, and I also had a lot of fun. There are many practical reasons why people should play props. But I honestly play them because they’re fun.
Before 2018, I knew very little about almost every sport outside of the NFL. Now, I still know almost nothing, but I know more than I did, and on a daily basis I enjoyed sweating the individual performances of many players across all sorts of sports.
I’m looking to keep the good times rolling in 2019.
What Tools I Use to Bet Props
Here are the research tools and articles I use to inform my prop-betting decisions.
The FantasyLabs Props Tools: These tools compare our industry-leading projections to the props available in the market and highlight which props offer the most value.
The FantasyLabs Models: Some sportsbooks offer fantasy point props, which I’ve bet successfully using the projections in our daily fantasy models.
The RotoViz Tools: I got my early start in the industry at RotoViz (as did FantasyLabs co-founder Jonathan Bales), and RotoViz has a great collection of NFL and NASCAR apps. Here are some of my favorites.
The Action Network Articles: Each day, you can find at least one props piece on The Action Network, most likely written by one of the following contributors.
- Matt LaMarca: NBA & MLB
- Justin Bailey: NFL & MLB
- Cort Smith (of Bet the Prop): NFL
- Nick Giffen (of RotoViz): NASCAR
Approximately 99% of the success I’ve had with prop bets is due to these resources. I suggest you consult them for yourself.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
1-1-1, +0.25 Units
- Golf: 1-0-0, +1.25 Units
- NBA: 0-1-0, -1.0 Units
- NHL: 0-0-1, +0.0 Units
Freedman’s Favorite Prop Bet for Saturday, Jan. 5: Deshaun Watson Rushing Yards Over/Under 39.5
The Pick: Under (+130)
The Colts and Texans kick off the NFL postseason today at 4:35 pm ET, and with the playoffs comes this gift of a prop.
The Colts are No. 4 against the run in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. They’ve held quarterbacks to a bottom-six mark of 11.4 rushing yards per game.
With the dynamic All-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard patrolling the middle of the field for the Colts and leading the league with 163 tackles, opposing quarterbacks have struggled to pick up yards on the ground.
Watson is no average quarterback with his athleticism and ability, but since his Week 5 chest (lung and ribs) injury, he has done less as a runner.
- Weeks 1-5: 40.2 yards rushing
- Weeks 6-17: 31.8 yards rushing
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Watson projected for 33.6 yards rushing. At plus odds, this is a fantastic prop.
This line is available at Bovada. At 39.5, I’d be bet this to +100. At +130, I’d bet this to 36.5.
Note: I believe that this is also one of Sean Koerner’s favorite props for the day.