Freedman’s Favorite Week 8 NFL Prop Bets on DraftKings
Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mitch Trubisky
- Matthew Freedman identifies three of the best Week 8 NFL prop bets available on DraftKings.
- See his picks for Mitch Trubisky's rushing yards, T.Y. Hilton's receptions and Kyle Allen's passing yards.
DraftKings is consistently one of the first sportsbooks to post NFL player props each week, releasing lines on Friday afternoon for the slate of Sunday games.
Lines for the Week 8 games have just been posted, and since the prop market moves quickly, I’m highlighting some bets I’m making immediately and pointing out how our FantasyLabs Props Tool grades all three props below.
This season, I’m 220-128-3 (+57.3) on NFL player props.
Odds as of Friday afternoon and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $200.
Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky Rushing Yards
- Over 10.5: -109
- Under 10.5: -114
In his first two seasons, Trubisky was very much a running quarterback: He averaged 25.7 rushing yards on 4.2 carries per game.
This year, though, he’s tapped the breaks. In five starts, Trubisky has just 4.2 yards on one carry per game. Granted, he played only six snaps in one of those games, but his rushing high for the season is just 11 yards, which he hit in Week 1. Since then, he hasn’t gotten above eight yards, and last week he didn’t have a single rushing attempt.
The Chargers have allowed 8.9 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. In five of seven games, they’ve held quarterbacks to fewer than 10.5 yards rushing. And one of the two passers to hit the over was Deshaun Watson, one of the league’s best dual-threat quarterbacks.
I’m fully on the under.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Trubisky projected for 5.4 rushing yards.
Pick: Under 10.5 (-114)
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 10 (out of 10)
Panthers QB Kyle Allen Passing Yards
- Over 229.5: -112
- Under 229.5: -112
This seems like a really aggressive line. The Panthers are coming off the bye, so they should be rested and ready with a game plan for the 49ers.
But they are on the road, and Allen has averaged just 225.3 yards passing in his four starts this season. And now he’s facing the 49ers, who have held opposing quarterbacks to a league-low 155.7 passing yards per game.
The word on the Twitter streets is that the 49ers have faced a lot of nobodies. That’s not entirely true. Sure, they’ve benefited from soft matchups against Andy Dalton, Mason Rudolph and Case Keenum. But they’ve also played against Jameis Winston, Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff — and they’ve shut them down.
And although Allen is 5-0 in his career as a starter — and that’s great — the truth is he’s a relative nobody. He’s an undrafted second-year backup. It’s not as if he’s clearly a tier above all the other quarterbacks the 49ers have faced.
In just one game this year have the 49ers allowed opposing quarterbacks to pass for even 200 yards. That number will regress at some point, but the fact is that Allen is in for the toughest matchup of his young career.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Allen projected for 195 yards passing.
Pick: Under 229.5 (-112)
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 9
Colts WR T.Y. Hilton Receptions
- Over 4.5: +115
- Under 4.5: -143
I’m a pessimist by nature, and the under tends to be the sharp side for most props, but I like the over here.
As I point out in my Week 8 WR/CB matchups piece, Hilton might have his toughest matchup of the season against shadow cornerback Chris Harris Jr.
But Hilton has averaged eight targets and six receptions per game this season, and he’s in his personal smash spot as a home favorite.
Since his first 1,000-yard campaign in 2013, Hilton has laid points at Lucas Oil stadium in 38 regular season games. In this sample, he’s averaged 9.3 targets and 5.9 receptions per game (per RotoViz Game Splits App).
In Hilton’s four games matching up with Harris and the Broncos since they both become Pro Bowlers in 2014, he’s gone over 4.5 receptions three times.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Hilton projected for 5.3 receptions.
Pick: Over 4.5 (+115)
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 9
To see the rest of the player props I’m betting for Week 8, follow me in The Action Network App. I will continue to fill out my prop card throughout the weekend.