NFL Prop Bets: How To Bet Saquon Barkley’s 2020 Rushing Props
Mike Stobe Hickey/Getty Images. Pictured: Saquon Barkley.
NFL Prop Bets: Giants RB Saquon Barkley
|Rush Yards||1199.5 (-112/-112) [BET NOW]|
|Rush/Receive Yards||1649.5 (-112/-112) [BET NOW]|
Saquon Barkley has been the all-purpose force the New York Giants envisioned when taking him with the second overall pick in 2018. In every game, the third-year running back seems to take a play that should be stopped for no gain and busts it into a big gain for the offense.
Saquon’s success has been mostly his own doing, as he only managed 1.8 yards before contact. This ranked bottom 10 among qualifying players. Barkley’s elite skill set can lead to a big year in 2020 if the other parts of New York’s offense can help him out.
The news of offensive tackle Nate Solder opting out for the season had to be a heartbreak for the Giants. Draft capital and money has gone towards building up this offensive line the last two offseasons, and it may all lead to starting two rookies at tackle this year.
With a shortened offseason, this could spell trouble for New York, particularly early in the year. The passing offense will hopefully see improvements thanks to quarterback Daniel Jones having a year of experience under his belt. If this offense can pressure teams through the air and force defenses off the line of scrimmage, Saquon might be in line to showcase even more of his big-play ability.
The defense had a few free agent moves, re-signing Leonard Williams and signing new starters in James Bradberry, Logan Ryan and Blake Martinez. These moves should help improve a pass defense that ranked 30th in yards per attempt last year. Having better control of their opponents’ passing attacks will help Barkley’s rushing totals too, as the Giants should be down less often and be able to control teams more when they have a lead.
Checking the lines at various sportsbooks, we see some consistency with about 1,200 yards rushing for Barkley. This looks like a scary position to be in considering our projections — which can be found as part of our PRO package — have Saquon’s rushing total at about 1,192. The markets have very little value left on the table, so I would fade the rushing total.
Then in reviewing the total yardage (rushing and receiving) prop, we can see a little discrepancy between the various books, ranging from 1625.5 on the low end from DraftKings, all the way up to 1649.5 at FanDuel. This difference is why it is always important to check all books for their lines. Our projections have Barkley at about 1,655 yards total, which is almost identical to what FanDuel has posted.
Despite a little value on the over, I am again fading this prop. Saquon’s ability gives him the upside for a 2,000+ total yardage year. But the uncertainty around the Giants offensively makes the over too risky for me.
LEAN: Under 1199.5 rushing yards and under 1649.5 total yards.