NFL Prop Bets & Picks: The Rams vs. 49ers Prop To Bet For Sunday Night Football

Credit:

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images. Pictured: Deebo Samuel.

Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite prop(s) for every slate throughout the 2020 season — he’s 47-27 (63.5%) so far and has a 253-176-5 (59.0%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.

Find his pick for the Sunday Night Football showdown between the 49ers and Rams below. And if you’re looking for more action, his projections also power the FantasyLabs NFL Player Prop Tool, which grades every prop.


NFL Prop Bet: Rams vs. 49ers

  • The Pick: Deebo Samuel Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
  • Bet Now: FanDuel and BetMGM

Deebo fractured a bone in his foot in mid-June, and it ultimately forced him to miss the first three games of the season. The 49ers eased him in for his season debut in Week 4 with just 25 snaps (34% of the team’s total snaps).

Last week, he returned to a full-time role, playing 90% of the snaps. Samuel could only corral two passes for 19 yards but saw a team-high eight targets.

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The underlying usage was very encouraging, and we have a “buy low” opportunity with his receiving prop tonight. I don’t expect Samuel to be matched up too often with Jalen Ramsey, who may be asked to chase George Kittle for much of the game.

I like his chances of seeing ~seven targets tonight, and his tremendous ability to gain yards after the catch gives him a higher floor than most receivers in this market. I would set this line at 48.5 and bet it up to 43.5.

Here is the percentage of times Deebo went over each yardage in my 10,000 simulations for tonight’s game:

Yards
Over
Under
40.5
58.4%
41.6%
41.5
57.1%
42.9%
42.5
56.2%
43.8%
43.5
54.5%
45.5%
44.5
53.6%
46.4%
45.5
52.5%
47.8%
46.5
51.2%
48.8%
47.5
49.4%
50.6%

[Bet Deebo Samuel’s Over at FanDuel completely risk-free for $1,000]

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