NFL Prop Bets & Picks For Cowboys vs. Ravens On Tuesday Night Football

NFL Prop Bets & Picks For Cowboys vs. Ravens On Tuesday Night Football article feature image
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Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Ravens WR Devin Duvernay

  • Sean Koerner -- our director of predictive analytics -- is highlighting his favorite NFL prop bets for every slate of the 2020 season.
  • He details his pick for the Tuesday night showdown between the Dallas Cowboys and Baltimore Ravens below.
  • Find out why he likes the over on Ravens WR Devin Duvernay's receiving yardage prop.

NFL Prop Bets: Cowboys-Ravens

Pick
Bet Now 
Devin Duvernay Over 23.5 Rec Yards (-125)
DraftKings

Willie Snead remains on the Ravens’ reserve/COVID-19 list and was not activated for Tuesday night, which means that Duvernay will start in Snead’s place for the second straight game.

Last week, Duvernay ran a ridiculous 95% routes run per dropback. It wasn’t very reassuring to see him record only three catches for 20 yards given that much playing time, but the Ravens combined for only 110 passing yards between Robert Griffin III and Trace McSorley.

The passing game should get a boost with Lamar Jackson under center, and Duvernay is a good bet for 3-5 targets out of the slot.

Given his low average depth of target at 5.5, his targets are typically high-percentage plays, as evidenced by his 82% catch rate on the season — he’s exceptional once the ball is in his hands and is averaging 6.6 yards after the catch (per NextGenStats).

This is a great spot to invest in Duvernay’s over — I would bet it up to 28.5, but here are his projected chances of going over or under various lines based on my 10,000 player prop simulations:

Rec Yds
Over
Under
24.5
61.9%
38.1%
25.5
60.4%
39.6%
26.5
58.8%
41.2%
27.5
57.2%
42.8%
28.5
55.7%
44.3%
29.5
54.1%
45.9%
30.5
52.5%
47.5%
31.5
50.8%
49.2%
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