Thursday NFL Prop Picks: 2 Todd Gurley Unders To Bet For Falcons vs. Panthers

Thursday NFL Prop Picks: 2 Todd Gurley Unders To Bet For Falcons vs. Panthers article feature image
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Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Todd Gurley

  • Sean Koerner -- our Director of Predictive Analytics -- is bullish on Todd Gurley's receiving projections for Thursday night.
  • Even still, Koerner sees value on the Falcons running back's unders for this primetime showdown against the Panthers.

Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite prop(s) for every slate throughout the 2020 season — he’s 58-35 (62.4%) so far with a 264-183-5 (59.1%) overall record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.

Find his picks for Thursday Night Football featuring the Falcons at Panthers below. And if you’re looking for more action, his projections also power the FantasyLabs NFL Player Prop Tool, which grades every prop.

NFL Prop Bets for Falcons-Panthers

I’m looking to fade Todd Gurley’s receiving usage on Thursday night, and there are multiple reasons why:

  1. His routes run per dropback is typically in the 35-50% range, and though I’m projecting him in the high end at 50%, I’m still showing value on his under. That means there’s a pretty straightforward “out” for the under hitting: He could run fewer routes (19) than I’m projecting.
  2. It’s a Thursday night game, meaning it’s a short week, and I could see the Falcons scaling back his workload considering he’s a veteran with a chronic knee issue. This means Brian Hill and Ito Smith could spell Gurley on more passing downs, leading to what I pointed out in Reason No. 1 — that I’m over-projecting his routes run.
  3. The Panthers generate the least amount of pressure in the NFL, and injuries to Kawann Short and second-round rookie Yetur Gross-Matos make it hard to see them turning it around, so Matt Ryan should be operating from a fairly clean pocket all night. Gurley is responsible for 6.8% of all completed passes from Ryan this season — when under pressure, Gurley shoots up to 8.9% (of completed passes), but down to 6.2% when Ryan operates out of a clean pocket. The lack of pressure in the pocket could result in fewer check downs to Gurley.

In the end, I’m pretty favorable to Gurley in my simulation (which I run 10,000 times): I have him maxed out in routes run (50%), raising his yards per reception from 5.9 (2020 actual) to 7.0, and I’m projecting him for 2.1 receptions (when his per game average is 1.9).

Based on the three points I outlined above, there are reasons to believe I’m way too bullish on Gurley and still show value on the under 18.5 receiving yards. Every yard matters in this market, so here are my projected chances of Gurley going over or under various lines for you to compare to your book(s):

I also like the under 2.5 receptions at -150 and included a second table with projections for various lines in that market as well.

I would bet the yards down to 15.5 and the under 2.5 receptions to -150.

Rec Yards
Over
Under
12.5
49%
51%
13.5
46%
54%
14.5
43%
57%
15.5
40%
60%
16.5
36%
64%
17.5
34%
66%
18.5
32%
68%

[Bet Under 18.5 Receiving Yards at BetMGM and get a $500 INSTANT deposit match]

Receptions
Over
Under
0.5
89%
11%
1.5
65%
35%
2.5
38%
62%
3.5
18%
82%
4.5
7%
93%
5.5
2%
98%
6.5
1%
99%

[Bet Under 2.5 Receptions at FanDuel completely risk-free for $1,000]

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