Monday Night Football Picks: Bet the Over on This Bills vs. 49ers Receiving Prop

Monday Night Football Picks: Bet the Over on This Bills vs. 49ers Receiving Prop article feature image
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Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Jordan Reed, Jerick McKinnon

  • Sean Koerner -- our Director of Predictive Analytics -- is breaking down his favorite NFL prop bets for every slate of the 2020 season.
  • You'll find his pick for the Bills vs. 49ers on Monday Night Football: The over on a receptions prop.

NFL Prop Bets: Bills-49ers

Pick
Bet Now 
Jordan Reed Over 3.5 Rec (+150)
BetMGM

I want to “buy” Jordan Reed shares as his stock is trending up.

Reed missed Weeks 4-8 with a knee injury but was able to return to a limited role in Week 9. George Kittle was placed on injured reserve due to his foot injury in Week 9. Therefore, we’ve seen Reed’s playing time ramp up over the past few games as he regained his health — his routes run per drop back have gone from 25% > 52% > 68% over the past three games. We should expect him to remain in the 65-70% range for Monday night, which should allow him to see five to six targets.

It makes sense to attack his reception market as his yards per catch (8.8) and median yards per catch (8) gives me some pause for going with the over on his prop of 33.5 yards. He’ll likely need four receptions to get there anyway, so let’s go with the better payout.

Reed has played on only 60% (or more) of passing plays with Kittle out twice this season. In those two contests, Reed posted stat lines of 7/50/2 in Week 2 and 2/18/0 in Week 12. It’s worth noting that last week, he saw six targets and led the team with 84 air yards, which means he just missed out on a ton of production. The market seems to be overlooking that.

The matchup also sets up nicely for him as the Bills have been fairly vulnerable to tight ends — they’ve allowed an opposing tight end to catch four or more balls in eight of their 10 games.

I would set the vig on the over 3.5 receptions closer to -120, so we’re getting quite a bit of value here. I would bet this up to +100, but obviously try to find the best available price.

Here are his chances to clear each reception number based on my sims:

Receptions
Over
Under
0.5
98.0%
2.0%
1.5
90.1%
9.9%
2.5
74.7%
25.3%
3.5
54.7%
45.3%
4.5
35.2%
64.8%
5.5
19.9%
80.1%
6.5
10.1%
89.9%
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NFL Prop Bets: Washington-Steelers

Pick
Bet Now 
Ben Roethlisberger Under 276.5 Pass Yards (-110)
FanDuel

I’m projecting Ben Roethlisberger’s median expectation closer to 265.5 passing yards on Monday.

He’s battling a knee injury that was severe enough to render him a non-participant for a few practices this week. Obviously, a veteran quarterback like Roethlisberger could go all week without practicing and probably be fine. However, the Steelers will be playing their third game in 12 days this Sunday over what has been a hectic period of rescheduling games due to COVID-19 outbreaks on other teams, which could result in a more conservative and run-heavy game plan.

Washington’s pass defense also isn’t a pushover — the Football Team ranks third in Football Outsiders’ DVOA on the season. Big Ben has only gone over this number in only three of 11 games, and nothing about this matchup leads me to believe we should expect a ceiling performance.

I would bet this down to 270.5, but here are his projected chances of going over or under various yardages based on my 10,000 player prop simulations:

Pass Yards
Over
Under
274.5
44.1%
55.9%
275.5
43.5%
56.5%
276.5
42.9%
57.1%
277.5
42.3%
57.7%
278.5
41.8%
58.2%
279.5
41.2%
58.8%
280.5
40.6%
59.4%
281.5
40%
60.0%
282.5
39.5%
60.5%
283.5
38.9%
61.1%
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