Koerner’s NFL Player Prop For Patriots vs. Rams On Thursday Night Football

Koerner’s NFL Player Prop For Patriots vs. Rams On Thursday Night Football article feature image
Credit:

Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: Josh Reynolds

  • Sean Koerner -- our director of predictive analytics -- is highlighting his favorite NFL prop bets for every slate of the 2020 season.
  • He breaks down his pick for the Patriots vs. Rams matchup on Thursday Night Football below.
  • Find out why he's fading Los Angeles WR Josh Reynolds' receiving production.

NFL Prop Bets: Patriots-Rams

Pick
Bet Now 
Josh Reynolds Under 2.5 Rec (+110)
DraftKings

Heading into the season, I expected Josh Reynolds and second-round rookie Van Jefferson to split WR3 duties. That was certainly the case early on:

  • Week 1: Reynolds 50%, Jefferson 50%
  • Week 2: Reynolds 53%, Jefferson 47%

But in Weeks 3-12, Reynolds was the unquestioned No. 3 WR — he dominated routes run at 86% compared to Jefferson’s 11%. However, in Week 13, we saw Jefferson outpace Reynolds in routes run for the first time this season (52% to 44%).

I initially thought the extreme change in usage could have been injury related, but it appears Reynolds is perfectly healthy and this was purely a decision made by head coach Sean McVay. It makes this an extremely volatile situation that’s tricky to project for Thursday night. I’m expecting Reynolds to rebound a bit (60% routes run) compared to Jefferson (40%). It’s also possible that given the short week, this underlying usage is more likely to stick for at least one more game.

I expect this matchup to be fairly run-heavy on both sides, making it more favorable to bet the under for either passing game. The yardage market for Reynolds is falling, and I see more value in attacking his receptions. He may be able to go over 25.5-30.5 yards on just two receptions, but three would certainly be difficult for him to stay under any number available right now.

We are getting plus odds on the under (for now), so I’m going to lock this price in while I can. We’ll already be rooting for Jefferson, so a bet on his over is a nice correlation play with this prop. However, as I mentioned earlier, I do expect a run-heavy game and would lean on under bets tonight when it comes to passing/receiving yards.

I would bet under 2.5 receptions down to -125, but here are Reynolds’ chances of going over or under various reception and receiving yard lines based on my 10,000 player prop simulations:

Receptions
Over
Under
0.5
90.0%
10.0%
1.5
66.9%
33.1%
2.5
40.4%
59.6%
3.5
20.1%
79.9%
4.5
8.4%
91.6%
Rec Yds
Over
Under
24.5
49.4%
50.6%
25.5
47.4%
52.6%
26.5
45.5%
54.5%
27.5
43.6%
56.4%
28.5
41.7%
58.3%
29.5
39.9%
60.1%
30.5
38.0%
62.0%
Bet at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus