NFL Sharp Report: Pros Betting Bears-49ers, Two Other Week 16 Games
Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: San Francisco 49ers quarterback Nick Mullens (4).
- Wiseguys are betting three NFL games on Sunday, headlined by Chicago Bears-San Francisco 49ers (4:05 p.m. ET).
- Sharps are also getting down on Atlanta Falcons-Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars-Miami Dolphins (both at 1 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how the pros are betting each game.
In gambling circles, “sharps” (also known as wiseguys) are professional bettors with long track records of success.
They don’t bet games based on bias or gut instinct. Instead, they are 100% analytical and value-driven.
Wiseguys bet numbers, not teams. When they place big wagers on a game, they force bookmakers to move the lines.
Last Sunday, wiseguys went 3-0 with their plays. Which teams/totals are they betting in Week 16?
>> All odds as of 1:45 p.m. ET on Saturday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
- Sharp angle: Panthers (+4 to +3)
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
One of the biggest mistakes recreational bettors make is overreacting to injuries, especially when it comes to big name players. Cam Newton has been shut down for the season and the Panthers will start Taylor Heinicke in his place — wait, who?
Average Joes see an automatic Carolina fade with an unknown backup under center. But not the sharps. As always, they’re capitalizing on public bias. Extract additional value by buying on bad news and selling on good news, as the sharp mantra goes.
This game opened at Falcons -3. Public betting (nearly 65% of bets) pushed Atlanta up to -4. That’s when sharps got down hard on Carolina at an inflated number.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed five separate steam and reverse line moves on the Panthers. Sharps hit Carolina twice at +4, but then came back three more times on Carolina +3. This overload of smart money dropped the Panthers to +2.5 before the line evened back out at +3.
Carolina also finds themselves in a profitable historical spot. They’re a divisional dog with a relatively low total (44) and also match a top Bet Labs PRO system that is 63.3% against the spread since 2003 with +47 units won and a 22.9% ROI.