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NFL Sharp Report: Pros Betting Seahawks-49ers, Two Other Week 15 Games

Dec 15, 2018 5:35 PM EST
Credit:

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell WIlson.

  • Wiseguys are betting three NFL games on Sunday, headlined by Dallas Cowboys-Indianapolis Colts (1 p.m. ET).
  • Sharps are also getting down on Green Bay Packers-Chicago Bears (1 p.m. ET) and Seattle Seahawks-San Francisco 49ers (4:05 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how the pros are betting each game.

In gambling circles, “sharps” (also known as wiseguys) are professional bettors with long track records of success.

They don’t bet games based on bias or gut instinct.  Instead, they are 100% analytical and value-driven. 

Wiseguys bet numbers, not teams. When they place big wagers on a game, they force bookmakers to move the lines.

By using the betting tools available at The Action Network and Sports Insights, we can track how sharps are affecting betting lines for every NFL game.

Last Sunday, wiseguys went 3-1 with their plays. Which teams are they betting in Week 15?


>> All odds as of 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.


Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.

Full Sports Betting Glossary


Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

  • Sharp angle: Under (moved from 46.5 to 45.5)
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET

It’s a misconception that sharps and squares (recreational bettors who bet for fun) are always on opposite sides. While rare that they’ll align, it does happen. This under is a great example.

The over/under opened at 46.5. Currently 56% of bets are taking the under, but it also accounting for a whopping 68% of dollars.

This represents moderate public support but also heavy sharp money, which is why we’ve seen the total dip from 46.5 to 45.5.

Typically, 56% of bets will move the juice a cent or two, but not a full point. So we know this line movement was caused by sharp action, not public betting.

The under also matches the profitable Bet Labs PRO system for divisional unders (61.7% win rate, +56.33 units, 20.1% return on investment since 2003).

Historically, unders perform much better in games between divisional opponents, compared to non-divisional games, due to the built-in familiarity.

Two added bonuses for under backers: the forecast calls for moderate 7-8 mph crosswinds at Soldier Field and John Hussey is the head official.

Since 2003, the Under has gone 37-21 (63.8%, +14.61 units) when Hussey is the lead ref.

Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Khalil Mack

Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts

  • Sharp angle: Colts (stayed at -3)
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET

This is the toughest game for the public to handicap. Average Joes love home favorites, especially when laying a short spread. However, the road dog Cowboys (8-5) have won five straight and look like a totally different team with Amari Cooper in the fold.

How you can you not take the points against a Colts (7-6) team with an inferior record?

Unlike the public, wiseguys have taken a clear position.

This non-conference showdown opened at Colts -3. Spread bets are split right down the middle, 50/50. However, Indianapolis is getting 72% of spread dollars.

This massive bets-vs.-dollars split is a dead giveaway that the big sharp wagers are laying the points, while casual $5 bets are grabbing them.

We haven’t seen any line movement in this game, but a closer look at the juice movement signals liability on Andrew Luck & Co.

The juice opened at Cowboys +3 at -122 and has since flipped to Colts -3 at -119. That means the books were worried about Dallas at the outset, but not anymore.

Liability is clearly with the Colts and the line looks like it may move off the key number to Colts -3.5.

Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we tracked one notable Reverse Line Move on Indianapolis. We haven’t seen a single conflicting play on the Cowboys.

Brian Spurlock, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Andrew Luck

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers

  • Sharp angle: 49ers (moved from +6 to +3.5)
  • Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET

Recreational bettors take one look at these teams’ win-loss records and that’s all they need to know. Seattle is 8-5 and San Francisco is 3-10. Seahawks all day.

But seasoned wiseguys know that these buy-low, sell-high situations often provide the most value.

Seattle opened as 6-point road favorite. Despite receiving 74% of bets, the Seahawks have fallen from -6 to -3.5.

Why would the bookmakers drop the line to give public Russell Wilson backers an easier shot at covering?

Because they took in heavy money on the 49ers from respected players, forcing them to adjust the spread toward San Francisco.

We’ve tracked seven separate steam and reverse line moves on SF at +5, +4.5 and +4 and not a single conflicting play (or buyback on the Seahawks).

Even better, the 49ers are only getting 29% of bets but 58% of dollars, further evidence of smart money on the home dog.

The 49ers finds themselves in a profitable historical spot, too. They’re a division dog with a relatively low total (44) and fit two Bet Labs PRO systems on bad ATS teams playing good ATS teams (61.7% ATS since 2005) and fading teams that have covered by a large margin late in the season (56.6% ATS since 2005).

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