Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes
- Wiseguys are betting five NFL games on Sunday, headlined by Chicago Bears-New York Giants (1 p.m. ET).
- Sharps are also getting down on Indianapolis Colts-Jacksonville Jaguars (1 p.m. ET), Carolina Panthers-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 p.m. ET), Los Angeles Rams-Detroit Lions (1 p.m. ET) and Kansas City Chiefs-Oakland Raiders (4:05 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how the pros are betting each game
In gambling circles, “sharps” (also known as wiseguys) are professional bettors with long track records of success.
They don’t bet games based on bias or gut instinct. Instead, they are 100% analytical and value-driven.
Wiseguys bet numbers, not teams. When they place big wagers on a game, they force bookmakers to move the lines.
Last Sunday, wiseguys went 3-1 with their plays. Which teams are they getting down on in Week 13?
>> All odds as of 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Sharp angle: Jags (+4.5 to +4)
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
Two teams trending in completely different directions.
Andrew Luck and the surging Colts (6-5) have won five straight. Meanwhile, the Jaguars (3-8) have lost seven in a row, starting running back Leonard Fournette is suspended and Blake Bortles has been benched for Cody Kessler.
Colts all day, right?
Not so fast, say the sharps. This line opened at Colts -3.5. Heavy public betting on Indy (79% of bets) pushed the line up to -4.5. That’s when sharps made their move on the Jags.
Pros hammered Jacksonville at an inflated +4.5, triggering 10 separate steam and reverse line moves across the offshore market. This overload of smart money caused the line to fall back down to +4.
The Jaguars are only receiving 21% of bets, making them one of the top contrarian plays of the day. So far this season, dogs getting less than 30% of bets have gone 61.3% ATS.
Jacksonville also fits the profitable Bet Labs PRO system Fade Streaks NFL Spread (56.5% ATS since 2005).
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Sharp angle: Bucs (+4 to +3)
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
The Buccaneers (4-7) are in a similar spot as the Jaguars this week. They are a struggling team at home on a short spread getting no public support against a better divisional opponent (the 6-5 Panthers).
In the eyes of the wiseguys, that’s great value that you can’t pass up.
The line opened at Carolina -3.5. The public has been laying the points as fast as they can, with 75% of bets taking Cam Newton and company. This overwhelming public support pushed the line up to -4. That’s when sharps got down hard on Tampa.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed 11 different steam and reverse line moves on Tampa. All of the moves came on the Buccaneers at +4 or +3.5, which means sharps only like Bucs with the hook or more. The line is now down to +3.
The Bucs also enjoy a profitable smart money discrepancy. They’re only getting 25% of bets but 47% of dollars — further evidence of smart money in their favor.
Chicago Bears at New York Giants
- Sharp angle: Giants (+4.5 to +3.5)
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
The Giants might be one of the sneakiest sharp plays of the week.
The Bears (8-3) have won five straight and sit atop the NFC North. Meanwhile, the Giants (3-8) are the cellar dwellers in the NFC East.
Despite the quarterback change from Mitchell Trubisky (injured) to Chase Daniel, average Joes aren’t worried about laying the points. But Goodfellas are buying low on the G-Men, who have actually played well as of late, winning two of their past three games.
The Bears opened as a 4.5-point favorite. Despite receiving 61% of bets, Chicago has fallen from -4.5 to -3.5. This reverse line movement was caused by sharps hammering the G-Men across the offshore market.
The Giants are receiving 39% of bets, but 61% of dollars, evidence of heavy smart money. They also fit the profitable Bet Labs PRO system Fade Streaks NFL Spread (56.5% ATS since 2005).
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions
- Sharp angle: Lions (+10)
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
The Rams have quickly become a Super Bowl favorite and public darling. However, despite the stellar 10-1 record, they are 4-5-2 against the spread this season.
Nevertheless, recreational bettors are pounding Todd Gurley and company as a massive road favorite against the struggling 4-7 Lions.
The line opened at Rams -10. Despite receiving the massive public support (77% of bets), the line hasn’t budged. In fact, it’s even dipped to -9.5 briefly throughout the week. Essentially we are seeing a sharp line freeze on Detroit, with books refusing to move to +10.5 and hand out the hook to wiseguy Lions bettors.
Sharps have gotten down hard on Lions +10, triggering 11 different steam and reverse line moves. Detroit is getting 23% of bets, but 44% of dollars, another sign that pros are grabbing the points, not laying them.
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders
- Sharp angle: Raiders (+15.5 to +14)
- Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
On paper, this looks like a blowout. The Chiefs are 9-2 and Gruden’s Grinders are 2-9. Oddsmakers knew that whatever they set the line at, public bettors would hammer Kansas City no questions asked.
Patrick Mahomes and company opened as a massive 15.5-point road favorite. Despite receiving 73% of bets, the Chiefs have fallen to -14.
Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to give public Kansas City bettors an easier shot at covering? Because sharps have been getting down hard on Oakland, triggering 10 separate steam and reverse line moves. All of the plays came on the Raiders at +14.5 or higher, meaning sharps only like them with the hook on the +14.5.
The Raiders also find themselves in a valuable historical spot. They fit two profitable Bet Labs PRO systems: Team ATS Records (61.4% ATS since 2005) and Fade Streaks NFL Spread (56.5% ATS since 2005).
One big ex-factor to keep in mind: The Chiefs will be without star running back Kareem Hunt, who was released from the team after a TMZ video surfaced showing him assaulting a woman.