Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mitchell Trubisky
- Wiseguys are betting four NFL games on Sunday, headlined by Los Angeles Rams-Chicago Bears (8:20 p.m. ET).
- Sharps are also getting down on New England Patriots-Miami Dolphins (1 p.m. ET), New York Giants-Washington Redskins (1 p.m. ET) and Denver Broncos-San Francisco 49ers (4:05 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how the pros are betting each game.
In gambling circles, “sharps” (also known as wiseguys) are professional bettors with long track records of success.
They don’t bet games based on bias or gut instinct. Instead, they are 100% analytical and value-driven.
Wiseguys bet numbers, not teams. When they place big wagers on a game, they force bookmakers to move the lines.
Last Sunday, wiseguys went 4-1 with their plays. Which teams are they getting down on in Week 14?
>> All odds as of 12:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
- Sharp angle: Dolphins (+8.5 to +7.5)
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
The Patriots (9-3) are an auto-play for recreational bettors. And who can blame them? New England has gone an absurd 152-92 against-the-spread (62.3%) since 2003.
However, if the Pats have a kryptonite, it’s playing away games in steamy hot Miami: The Pats are a pedestrian 7-7-1 ATS, including 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to South Beach.
Brady and the Pats opened as 8.5-point road favorites in this one. Despite 70% of bets laying the points with New England, the Pats have fallen to -7.5.
Why would the books drop the line to give public Pats backers an easier shot at covering?
Because pros have been pounding Miami (6-6) plus the points, triggering six separate steam and reverse line moves. This overload of sharp action forced books to drop the line because of big Fins liability.
Miami is a divisional dog (a profitable trend since 2002) and getting just 31% of bets but 56% of dollars — further evidence of smart money.