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NFL Survivor Pool Week 11: How to Navigate the Toughest Week of the Season

Nov 18, 2018 9:58 AM EST
  • Week 11 is one of the toughest week's for NFL survivor pools so far this season as only two teams project to have at least a 70% chance of winning their games.
  • Based on The Action Network's NFL simulations and survivor-pool pick percentages, we offer the best pick for Week 11.

I had been looking forward to Week 10 in my survivor pools because I planned to use the Chiefs for weeks and knew they would provide an edge over those unable to pick Kansas City.

The Jets and Falcons both lost, which knocked out some, but it wasn’t a crazy week in terms of the number of upsets.

I’ve also been looking forward to this week, but for a totally different reason. I knew Week 11 would have very few options and could lead to a big chunk of entries getting ousted.

To emphasize my point, over 10% of entries are taking the 2-7 Arizona Cardinals. It’s that kind of week.

Here are the percentages for every game remaining in the season:

Normally, I list the teams that have a projected win percentage of 70% or more. Only two teams clear that threshold, so I made some additions.

Even one of the top teams has question marks as Joe Flacco is doubtful to start for the Ravens.

Given his play, I’m not sure how much of a downgrade it would be to Lamar Jackson anyway, but it’s still a big unknown.

The Saints are the most popular choice this week after demolishing the Bengals in Week 10. This seems like an overreaction to me as the Eagles still have a great roster despite their on-field struggles.

The Steelers are the next most popular pick this week. Pittsburgh on the road against a team with a good defense, what could go wrong?

My plan has always been to save the Chargers for Week 12 at home against Arizona. But it’s important to be nimble in this game and sometimes plans change.

The Pick: Los Angeles Chargers

I’m burning my best option one week earlier than planned, but I think it’s the best course of action. There are more options next week and it is still contrarian enough that we can gain on the field.

If you have already used the Chargers, I’d pivot to Baltimore and trust the numbers, although I understand the angst in making that pick.

If you have already used both of those teams, then I think you have to join the masses with the Saints, even though I’ll be rooting against them.

If you have used all of those, then I think you have to move down to Seattle or Chicago. Again, not great options but I prefer both of those teams to Pittsburgh on the road (I already bet Jaguars +6).

As always, if you have any questions feel free to hit me up on twitter @BetLabsTravis. Best of luck this week, we’re all going to need it.

Credit:

Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco

Follow Travis Reed on Twitter
@BetLabsTravis

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