Week 14 NFL Survivor Pool: Plan Ahead When Making Your Pick

Week 14 NFL Survivor Pool: Plan Ahead When Making Your Pick article feature image
Credit:

Stew Milne-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) and Josh Gordon (10)

  • With just four weeks remaining in the 2018-19 NFL regular season, it's imperative to plan ahead before making your Week 14 survivor pool pick.
  • Based on The Action Network's NFL simulations and survivor-pool pick percentages, we offer the best pick for Week 14.

Last week the Saints, Colts, Bears and Packers lost as favorites. This may have been good for my betting bankroll, but caused some havoc in survivor pools.

I recommended taking the Titans last week. It wasn’t pretty but they were able to squeak by the Jets.

Some of you took the Packers and were eliminated. I still believe that was a good decision. You had 14-point favorites with no future value in a contrarian spot.

Think of it like pocket aces getting cracked in poker. You got your money in well, but it didn’t pay off.

Looking ahead to Week 14, there are two tiers of options. If you have already used most of the premiere teams, then it could get a little dicey.

Here are the projected win percentages for the last four weeks of the season:

 

There are four teams that clear the 70% threshold that I look for and another three I added to the table for those who are running low on options.

First off, if you have the Chargers this week then go ahead and use them. They are the most likely of Week 14 teams to win and don’t have much future value. Congrats if you saved them this long.

I would use the Saints next because they are more contrarian than the Steelers, who I would list as my third-best choice.

If you still have New England, think about saving the Patriots because you should have a bigger edge in Week 16 when they have a projected win percentage of 86.6% against Buffalo.

My second tier includes the Texans, Chiefs, then Broncos, although it depends on your teams left. Houston has no future value so you can feel okay pulling the trigger on it.

If you are looking ahead and need a team for Week 16, you want to save the Broncos. If you look thin in Week 17, then the Chiefs would be the team to save. Both are playing the Raiders in those respective weeks.

The Pick: Any of Them

It’s nonsense to make an overall pick at this point. Everybody reading this is in a different situation.

Here is how I would rank this week’s survivor pool options, in a vacuum:

  1. Chargers
  2. Saints
  3. Steelers
  4. Texans
  5. Chiefs
  6. Broncos
  7. Patriots

As always, if you have any questions about which team to go with this week, hit me up on twitter @BetLabsTravis.

Good luck and hope to see you back here next week.

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