NFL Thanksgiving Betting Market: Lofty Falcons-Saints Spread Not Deterring Bettors

Credit:

Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: A fan dressed up as a pilgrim during the Thanksgiving game between the Detroit Lions and the Minnesota Vikings at Ford Field.

Nov 21, 2018, 10:50 PM EST
  • The Bears-Lions spread hasn't moved toward Detroit despite Mitchell Trubisky's injury concerns (12:30 p.m. ET, CBS).
  • Early bettors have faith in Colt McCoy and the Redskins, moving the line down to +7.5 vs. the Cowboys (4:30 p.m. ET, FOX).
  • At -13, the Saints are close to becoming the largest Thanksgiving favorite in our database. The large majority of spread bettors think they can get the job done vs. Atlanta (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC).

If any of your relatives are giving you the business for watching football games at your Thanksgiving party, tell them you have a gambling problem.

Note to all the nagging aunts, uncles and cousins out there: Just let me sweat my bets in peace, damnit.

Here’s how the betting market has opened up for each of the three games.

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions

Spread: Bears -4. Though Mitchell Trubisky did not practice on Monday, this game remains on the board and bettors don’t seem to be worried. Following their big win vs. Minnesota, the Bears are getting two-thirds of the early bets and more than 70% of the money at the time of writing (see live data here).

The Bears opened between -3 and -4, and reached as high as -4.5 before some buyback knocked them back to -4.

The Lions finally got off the schneid with their win over Carolina, ending a three-game losing streak straight up and against the spread. Despite Detroit’s 4-6 record, it’s 6-4 ATS — one of the better marks in the league.

Over/Under: 45. After opening at 46 around the market, a steam move on the under has caused the total to drop to 45 everywhere you look. Sixty percent of bets are on the over, but dollars are split.

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Cowboys -7.5. When you’re sitting around the table eating dinner at 2 p.m. for some God forsaken reason and being asked what you’re thankful for, there’s only one logical answer: the fact that you may see both Colt McCoy and Mark Sanchez in the same game.

With Alex Smith getting Theismann’d, the Redskins moved from +5 on the Westgate early line up to +8 at many books and even +9.

The Cowboys’ win also probably helped push the line up a bit, but bettors were buying Colt in the early going. About 55% of the early cash is on Washington, which has fallen to +7.5 at the majority of sportsbooks around the market (see live data here).


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Over/Under: 40.5. Though nearly 70% of early bets are taking the over on this low total, the number has fallen from 41 to 40.5.

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints

Spread: Saints -13. At -13, the Saints are looking to become one of the largest Thanksgiving favorites in our Bet Labs database. Three teams have closed higher than -13, with 2007 Cowboys holding the record at -14 vs. the Jets.

Interestingly enough, double-digit favorites are 8-1 ATS on Thanksgiving, covering the spread by more than 10 points!

Perhaps bettors have caught onto this trend, as 72% of the public is on the Saints.

If you’re looking for a reason to bet on the Falcons, teams that made the postseason in the prior season are 54-31-1 ATS as a double digit dog.

Over/Under: 60. Before this season, over/unders approaching 60 were few and far between. Now, we can’t go more than a few days without seeing one.

More than 80% of early bets and 90% of early dollars are taking the over given the Saints’ dominant offense (see live data here). Though New Orleans is seemingly always involved in high-scoring games, only half of its 10 games have gone over this year.

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