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Rovell: $525,000 Bet Comes in on the Patriots

Rovell: $525,000 Bet Comes in on the Patriots article feature image

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Week 1 of the NFL season is always a huge deal behind the window and this season won’t be any different, even though it is different.

Thursday night’s season-opener between the Chiefs and Texans did huge numbers and the first Saturday of the College Football season was a boon, too.

“It was outstanding,” said DraftKings head of sportsbook Johnny Avello of Saturday’s action. “And the games were obviously not as good as a usual week one.”

And don’t forget, much of the public is feeling good from getting the result they most needed in the season opener — the Kansas City Chiefs outright and covering the 9.5 point spread against the Houston Texans.

Half-a-Million on the Pats

It seems like a lot of people are handling the Patriots with caution early in the season given the turnover at quarterback. Well, one bettor is quite confident it will be the same old Pats today against the Dolphins.

MGM reported that they took a $525,000 bet on New England (-7) against Miami on Sunday. The bettor stands to net $477,272.70 if Cam Newton and the Patriots cover.

Another punter, this one at William Hill, plunked $275,000 on the Pats -7 to win $250,000.

Other Big Bets

The hour before kickoff on Sunday is always the busiest time of the week for the guys behind the window and the big bets have started to fly in:

  • $50,000 to win $52,500 on Packers (+105) over Vikings at William Hill
  • $110,000 to win $100,000 on Browns (+7.5) vs. Ravens at BetMGM
  • $156,000 to win $124,800 on a two-team teaser with Colts -2/Bucs vs. Saints Over 41.5 at DraftKings

Believe it or not…

Perhaps the most interesting betting market for Sunday is the NFC West showdown between the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers (-6.5). The Niners are fresh off an NFC Championship and the Cards went 5-10-1 in 2019 but the public is actually backing the underdog in this one.

Arizona is now down to +6.5 at most sportsbooks (check our updated NFL odds page to shop for the best number). The Cards are the second-most popular bet on the board according to The Action Network’s bet-tracking data.

Jeff Sherman of the Westgate SuperBook  reports that the Cardinals are the rare team that is getting both sharp and square action. FanDuel and William Hill both reported that 83% of the money is on Kyler Murray and the Cards, who were the fourth-best team Against the Spread (ATS) in the NFL in 2019 at 9-5-2.

The Over (48) is also getting pounded by bettors with 89% of the money at William Hill backing points in Cardinals-49ers.

Brees vs. Brady

Given the love for the new-look Tampa Bay Buccaneers — they are the most bet or second-most popular bet team to win the Super Bowl depending on what book you look at — it’s actually surprising they aren’t getting more support as a 3.5-point dog against the New Orleans Saints.

Sherman says the public is on the Bucs at his shop, but according to our bet-tracking data, the Bucs are getting 47% of the bets against New Orleans.

The most intriguing bet for this game is on the total, which sits between 47.5 and 48 points. You can guess which side of the Over/Under the public is on in a showdown between Tom Brady and Drew Brees.

“How could you resist rooting for offense from two of the all-time best on opening week?” Avello asks.

Even so, the sharps like the under with the Action Network’s PRO report indicating 73% of the money is on the under. The split can clearly be seen at FanDuel, where 82% of bets are on the over, but only 58% of the money is taking the ride.

Public Darlings 

Bettors can’t get enough of the Philadelphia Eagles and the Buffalo Bills. The love for the Eagles undoubtedly has something to do with the fact that New Jersey and Pennsylvania are the second and third-biggest sports betting states in the country.

The Eagles have taken 88 and 87 percent of the money at DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively, as 5.5-point favorites over Washington. According to Sherman, Washington is getting sharp action at the Westgate.

The Bills could end up being the most popular bet of Sunday’s card. At the time of writing, Buffalo is getting 76% of the tickets according to our data and the split is even more drastic at William Hill where the Bills are getting 85% of the dollars against the Jets.

PointsBet’s Patrick Eichner said they’re seeing 81% of the tickets and 86% of the money back Buffalo.

The Most Lopsided Game of the Day

There’s only one game on Sunday’s slate with a more lopsided handle: Colts (-8) against the Jaguars.

Eichner said that Indianapolis is taking 75% of the bets and money at their shop while 86% of the dollars are on the Colts to beat the Jags by at least eight points at DraftKings.

“Many bettors think the Jaguars are one of the worst teams in the league,” Avello said.

Avello said the Colts are extremely popular this week in parlays, teasers, moneyline and survivor pools, along with the Las Vegas Raiders, Eagles and Seahawks.

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