NFL Week 12 Picks & Predictions: Broncos vs. Bills & Buccaneers vs. Falcons Offering Sunday’s Best Betting Edges
Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Buffalo Bills wide receiver John Brown (middle) celebrates with teammates
- Sunday's Broncos vs. Bills and Buccaneers vs. Falcons matchups are offering the best betting edges of Week 12.
- Using The Action Network's NFL Pro Systems, sharp action analysis and Sean Koerner's power ratings, we detail why these games are offering so much value.
We get it — people are busy these days. Between juggling partners, spouses, kids, full-time jobs, unicycling, etc., not everyone can spend the entire week analyzing and researching bets.
In fact, we produce a ton of articles every week here at The Action Network, which may make the task of plowing through so many pieces a tall task, especially for those of you with small windows of time to make your decisions and place your wagers.
With this in mind, I pored through all of our top betting systems, edges and market analysis to pinpoint which games are offering the most value across all of our angles.
When it comes to NFL betting value, I focused on three key indicators: Action Pro Systems, line value based on Sean Koerner’s power ratings and sharp money coming from the market’s most respected bettors.
Here are Sunday’s two best NFL edges, based on consistency among the tools and data listed above.
Denver Broncos (+4) at Buffalo Bills
- Pro Systems: Road Trips with Line Move (63.2% ATS) and Road Dog, Low Total After Bad Season (58.6%) ATS
- Sharp Money: Broncos (moved from +5.5 to +4)
- Power Rating: Bills +4
Two Pro System angles like Denver is this matchup, indicating there is historical value to be had in this game. Sharps are in full agreement, smashing this line from a high of Broncos +5.5 to the current spread of +4.
While Koerner’s projection of Broncos +4 doesn’t appear to show line value, he points out that, “Getting four points in a game that’s expected to be low-scoring gives each point that much more value.”
With Sean on board, Broncos +4 gets a clean sweep across our best betting angles.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons (Under 52)
Pro Systems: Divisional Unders (62.5% win rate)
Sharp Money: Under (moved from 54.5 to 52)
Historical betting data and the market are both identifying the under as the profitable play for Bucs-Falcons.
Late-season divisional matchups with higher totals have gone under 62.5% of the time since 2005, which gets even more credence since sharps have also steamed that side of the total three teams throughout the week.