Rovell’s Week 15 NFL Betting Market Report: Raiders’ Collapse Costs ‘Parlay Patz’ $40,000

Rovell’s Week 15 NFL Betting Market Report: Raiders’ Collapse Costs ‘Parlay Patz’ $40,000 article feature image
Credit:

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jon Gruden

Sunday Morning Update

7:15 p.m. ET: The man they call “Parlay Patz” had a $40,000 parlay wiped out on Sunday afternoon as the Jacksonville Jaguars completed their comeback against the Oakland Raiders.

Ben Patz, a 23-year-old college student in New York, placed the 5-team wager through William Hill‘s app in New Jersey. The bet, which would’ve profited $100,579.22, was a combination of five moneylines:
  • Navy moneyline vs. Army (WON)
  • Packers moneyline vs. Bears (WON)
  • Patriots moneyline vs. Bengals (WON)
  • 49ers moneyline vs. Falcons (SF leading)
  • Raiders moneyline vs. Jaguars (LOST)
This marks the second big-money parlay Patz has lost in the past few days, as a $20,000 wager he placed earlier this week fell victim to the same fate.
The $60,000 in losses came shortly after an incredible run from Patz, who won parlays of $183,892 and $116,260 last weekend, eclipsing more than $1.1 million in gross winnings since his streak began.
Patz told The Action Network that he was up more than $800,000 entering today.

Note: Always tread lightly when betting parlays, as they tend to be -EV bets over a long period of time.



4:15 p.m. ET: The Eagles closed as 6.5-point favorites on Sunday against the Redskins, and Philly wasn’t covering the spread at any point during the game … until the very final play

The worst possible beat for Redskins (+6.5) bettors 🤮

After Chris Thompson stepped out of bounds with :01 seconds in the game, Dwayne Haskins gets sacked and the Eagles defense run back the fumble for the score and cover‼️

pic.twitter.com/oOeYUKkcHa

— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) December 15, 2019

As you can imagine, not many folks were lining up to bet the lowly Redskins, so this play hit oddsmakers particularly hard.

“That crazy ending was a mid-5-figure swing against the book,” said PointsBet’s Patrick Eichner. We were set for a small victory with the score as it stood until it all went crazy.”

PointsBet, which operates in New Jersey and typically sees heavy action on Eagles games, immediately decided to do what it calls a “Good Karma Payout,” refunding the losing Redskins wagers in the form of bonus bets.

The result stung operators in Las Vegas, too. “Cost us a bunch,” John Murray from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook said. “Seems to happen once or twice a year. Welcome to the NFL.”

2:30 p.m. ET: Parlay Patz — the 23-year-old college student who’s been on a crazy betting run of late — has another potential six-figure payout on the line on Sunday.

Ben Patz wagered $40,000 at the William Hill sportsbook in New Jersey on a five-team moneyline parlay that would profit $100,579.22.

Here’s the parlay:

  • Navy moneyline vs. Army (WON)
  • Packers moneyline vs. Bears (leading 14-3)
  • Patriots moneyline vs. Bengals (leading 20-10)
  • 49ers moneyline vs. Falcons (late afternoon game)
  • Raiders moneyline vs. Jaguars (late afternoon game)

If all of Patz’s bets come through, it would mark his third six-figure winner in the past eight days. He profited $183,892 and $116,260 on two separate parlays last weekend.

Note: Always tread lightly when betting parlays, as they tend to be -EV bets over a long period of time.

12:30 p.m. ET: Another big bet. PointsBet Sportsbook in New Jersey took a $70,000 wager on a moneyline parlay of the Chiefs and Patriots. If both teams win straight-up, this bettor would profit $28,560.

12:19 p.m. ET: Just got word of a huge bet placed at DraftKings: A bettor wagered $242,000 on the Panthers +6 against the Seahawks. The bet would profit $220,000 if Carolina covers as home underdogs.

The Seahawks, which had covered four consecutive games prior to last week’s loss to the Rams, are one of today’s most popular bets, getting 83% of the betting tickets.

11:45 a.m. ET: The sides that FanDuel and DraftKings will need the most on Sunday…

FanDuel

  • Need Panthers: 95% of bets and 93% money on Seahawks
  • Need Bengals: 87% of bets and 87% money on Patriots
  • Need Chargers: 84% of bets and 84% money on Vikings

DraftKings

  • Need Steelers: 86% of bets and 85% money on Bills
  • Need Lions: 80% of bets and 87% money on Buccaneers
  • Need Bears: 79% of bets and 82% money on Packers

10:30 a.m. ET: We might have some history today, as our Action Network data shows that only 20% of the bets for the Cowboys-Rams game are on Dallas to cover as 1-point underdogs.

If the 20% of bets holds steady through close, it will mark only the third time since 2003 that the Cowboys have received such low betting support. (The other two games: 2015 against the Patriots and 2005 against the Eagles.)

“America’s Team” usually gets outsized betting support from the general public, given their overall popularity. That typically leads to the Cowboys’ opponents having betting value, particularly when Dallas is favored. Since 2003, the Cowboys are 81-96-4 (45.8%) against the spread when favored. Only eight teams are worse over that time period.

The opposite is true today with the general public not wanting anything to do with Dallas.

In fact, this spread has swung FIVE points — it opened Cowboys -4 and is now Cowboys +1 — a rare occurrence in the NFL.

Add it all up, and oddsmakers will be huge Cowboys fans today.

William Hill’s Nick Bogdanovich says they’re his third biggest need today after the Bengals (vs the Patriots) and the Panthers (vs the Seahawks).

The Cowboys have 18% of the bets and 21% of the money at FanDuel. It’s more of the same at DraftKings: The Cowboys are getting 29% of the bets and 23% of the money.


Friday Update

The Dallas Cowboys still might be favorites to win their division, but the lack of confidence by bettors this weekend is bordering on historical.

Our market-wide bet tracking data shows that the Cowboys are getting just 15% of the tickets against the Rams (-1.5) this weekend.

According to our Bet Labs database, which goes back to 2003, Dallas hasn’t been this unpopular since 2015. In that game versus the New England Patriots, Brandon Weeden’s Cowboys (+8) had 18% of the bets at close. They lost by 24.

“Nobody wants anything to do with the Cowboys after the eggs they’ve laid the past few weeks,” said PointsBet’s Matt Chaprales. “Pros and public alike have steamed the Rams, flipping an opener of Dallas -3 to Rams -1.5. About three-quarters of the tickets and 85% of the money on Los Angeles.”

At other sportsbooks, the money on the Cowboys is even lighter, as of Friday afternoon. At FanDuel, it’s 11% and at DraftKings and the Westgate SuperBook in Vegas it’s 14%.

“In the NFL people bet on what they’ve just seen,” said the SuperBook’s John Murray. “They saw the Rams beat the Seahawks and they saw the Cowboys play badly for two weeks (in losses to the Buffalo Bills and Chicago Bears).”

The Cowboys have lost four of five and always seem to be on the verge of firing head coach Jason Garrett. It’s a tumultuous situation, even if the Cowboys seem to be headed to the tournament thanks to the incompetence within the NFC East.

More Lopsided Action

After the Rams, the New England Patriots are Sunday’s most popular side. The Pats are 10-point favorites on the road in Cincinnati. The Pats have lost two games in a row and casual bettors are having a tough time buying that the one-win Bengals will give the Pats a game.

At the time of writing, 84% of the tickets are on New England. Money-wise, it’s one of the most lopsided games of the year for DraftKings, as the Patriots have attracted 97% of the money.

Most seasoned bettors know that records and box scores are often dishonest and plenty of respected NFL gamblers believe that the Seattle Seahawks are this season’s luckiest team. Thanks to Russell Wilson’s heroics, Seattle finds itself with a 10-3 record despite a points differential of just plus-20.

Are the sharps fading the Seahawks again this week? Well, it’s a tough bet to make considering their opposition. The Carolina Panthers have fallen off the rails over the past month and fired head coach Ron Rivera before Week 14.

Nobody likes to bet a team that is just playing out the string, which is why only 15% of the tickets are on the Panthers as 6-point home underdogs on Sunday. DraftKings bettors are also very heavy on the Seahawks with 96 percent of the money in this game in their favor.

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