Rovell’s Week 16 NFL Betting Blog: Sportsbooks Will Be Huge Eagles Fans As Money Flows to Cowboys
Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Carson Wentz, Zach Ertz
4 p.m. ET: According to William Hill’s money report sent earlier today, 17% of the total money wagered on today’s NFL games is on this afternoon’s Cowboys-Eagles contest. That was the second-highest number when William Hill circulated figures earlier today — and it’s certainly even higher now.
Why’s this context important? In addition to being one of the most-bet games of the day in terms of total money, Cowboys-Eagles is also one of the most lopsided contests. Everyone, it seems, believes in Dallas as road favorites:
- William Hill: 86% of the money is on Cowboys -2.5 at Eagles
- DraftKings: 87% of the money is on Cowboys -2 at Eagles
- FanDuel: 78% of the money is on the Cowboys -1.5 at Eagles
Add it all together and bookmakers will be massive Eagles fans on Sunday.
12:15 p.m. ET: A few big bets just came into CG Technology in Las Vegas:
- $30,000 to win $25,000 on Saints -3 at Titans
- $55,000 to win $50,000 on Eagles +2.5 vs. Cowboys
- $40,000 to win $56,000 on a moneyline parlay of the Steelers, Colts and Ravens
- $40,000 to win $34,000 on a moneyline parlay of Saints and Ravens
- 95% of the money is on Chiefs -6.5 at Bears
- 93% of the money is on Ravens -10 at Browns
- 90% of the money is on Saints -3 at Titans
- 89% of the money is on Broncos -7 vs. Lions
- 87% of the money is on Cowboys -2 at Eagles
- 93% of the money is on Saints -3.5 at Titans
- 89% of the money is on Ravens -10 at Browns
- 83% of the money is on Chiefs -6.5 at Bears
- 78% of the money is on the Cowboys -1.5 at Eagles
- 75% of the money is on the Broncos -7.5 vs. Lions
- 94% of the money is on Chiefs -7 at Bears
- 86% of the money is on Cowboys -2.5 at Eagles
- 83% of the money is on Falcons -7 at Jaguars
- 82% of the money is on Broncos -7.5 vs. Lions
- 78% of the money is on Ravens -10 at Browns
As you can see, there’s significant overlap between the two books. DraftKings, FanDuel and William Hill will all be big fans of some home underdogs — Bears, Browns and Eagles. William Hill also shared its most-bet games in terms of dollars wagered, and the aforementioned Ravens-Browns, Cowboys-Eagles and Chiefs-Bears contests are three of the top-four in terms overall handle.
This is consistent with what the SuperBook’s John Murray is seeing at his shop in Vegas. Murray told The Action Network that sharps bet the Titans and Steelers early in the week and that the SuperBook’s biggest needs are — wait for it — Browns, Bears and Eagles.
Tony DiTomasso, the director of risk operations at CG Technology added, “Everything live is going to KC tonight, so we’ll be big Bears fans.”
The New England Patriots have been a thorn in the side for bookmakers for the past decade. No matter how high the number, bettors would flock to the Pats. It was like clockwork.
Things have changed.
New England is a 6.5-point home favorite over Buffalo on Saturday afternoon and the public is fading the Patriots. You read that right. According to our market-wide data, only 36% of the tickets have come in on New England.
“Bettors seemed to have lost faith in the Patriots,” said Eric Osterman of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas. “We’ve taken lots of bets on the Bills moneyline and spread. We’re going to need the Patriots again this week, which is weird to say.”
Osterman also said that the Westgate won’t have the typical volume of parlays tied into the Patriots, either.
PointsBet’s Matt Chaprales said his outfit will be rooting for the Pats, as well.
“The public has grabbed the Bills on both the side and the moneyline,” Chaprales said. “This isn’t the first time we’ve needed the Pats recently.”
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Perhaps even more interesting is the Over/Under, which is sitting at 37 or 37.5 across the market.
This is the first time that Tom Brady is playing in a game with a sub-40 total since 2010 when Brady and the Pats took on Jay Cutler’s Bears. That was 163 starts ago for Brady.
The low total is not deterring bettors from backing the Under. After opening the total at 38.5, the SuperBook ticked it down to 37 behind some money on the under. According to our data, 60% of the bets on the total are on the under.
The other two games on Saturday have even more drastic betting splits. According to our market-wide data, the Texans (-3) are the most popular side on Saturday’s three-game slate, with 78% of the bets landing on Houston.
“It’s been one-sided Texans action,” Chaprales said. “Over 80% of the tickets and 75% of the money has come in on Houston.”
It’s a similar story at DraftKings, where the Texans are getting 80% of the bets.
Houston has moved from -1.5 to -3 as a result of the one-way traffic.
Sharp Bet Comes in on 49ers
The only notable bet we’ve heard of so far this morning is a five-figure play on the 49ers. According to CG Technology, they took a $22,000 bet from a respected player on the Niners -6.5 vs. the Rams. If the 49ers cover, the bet would net $20,000.
Over at PointsBet, it’s pretty clear the public is siding San Francisco.
“The action is heavy on the Niners, with over 70% of the tickets and money on San Francisco,” Chaprales said. “That isn’t surprising given the Rams performance last week. Pros have mainly stayed on the sidelines, but they’ll be all over LA if the market moves to 7.”
Big Bet Comes in on Titans
The public is all over the Saints in Tennessee on Sunday. According to our data, the Saints getting 73% of the tickets as short road favorites over the Titans. Even though New Orleans is getting the majority of the tickets, the line has actually moved from Saints -3 to -2/2.5, signaling that bigger bets are on Tennessee.
CG Technology reports that they took a $22,000 sharp bet on Titans +2.5.
America’s Team Once Again
Just a week ago, bettors wouldn’t touch the Cowboys with a 10-foot pole. After a 44-21 victory over the Rams in Week 15, they’re back to being America’s Team.
The Cowboys are 2-point road favorites over the Eagles on Sunday and bettors are happy to lay the points with Big D.
Osterman said the Eagles are currently the biggest need for the Westgate and our data shows 75% of the tickets and 71% of the money has landed on Dallas.
Despite the one-way action on Dallas, this line has bopped around between Dallas -3 and pick ’em thanks to some concerns over Dak Prescott’s health. Once it became clear that Prescott wouldn’t miss the game, the Cowboys money started flowing in.
After the Eagles, Osterman said that the Westgate’s next biggest needs are the Browns +10 against the Ravens and the Buccaneers +3 against the Texans.
The Cincinnati Bengals could clinch the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft if they lose to the Dolphins as 1-point favorites on Sunday. Osterman said that the market for this game is “mystifying” as nobody knows how these two teams will approach it.
“Bettors are worried about these teams tanking,” Osterman said.
Unsurprisingly, Dolphins-Bengals is the lowest-bet game of the slate at the SuperBook.