NFL Week 4 Pro System: When to Bet Teams off Bad Offensive Performances
Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Derrick Henry
- The Tennessee Titans mustered just seven points against the Jacksonville Jaguars last week
- Using Bet Labs, we detail the smartest way to bet on NFL teams off poor offensive performances.
The Titans’ offense struggled against the Jaguars in Week 3. Derrick Henry never got going, rushing the ball 17 times for only 44 yards. This was a drastic difference from the last time these teams played in Week 14 of 2018 when Henry ran for a franchise-record 238 yards and four touchdowns.
Without the ground game clicking the offense stalled. Tennessee managed only one touchdown in a 20-7 loss.
Nothing went right for the Titans, obviously, and now Tennessee heads to Atlanta in Week 4. After the poor offensive performance oddsmakers, opened the Titans as 4.5-point underdogs.
Bettors are not interested in backing a team that can’t score. More than 60% of spread tickets are on the Falcons.
It is easy to understand a gambler’s hesitation to play Tennessee, but it is important to not overreact to one game. Teams are rarely as good or bad as they looked the previous week.
Often teams that perform poorly one week will exceed expectations the next.
Since 2003, NFL teams that struggled to score in their previous game (fewer than 10 points) have gone 409-368-17 (52.6%) against the spread (ATS) in their next game per Bet Labs.
While you wouldn’t want to blindly bet every team in this situation, a $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $1,969 simply buying low on teams after scoring fewer than 10 points.
Oddsmakers know recency bias will affect the judgement of casual bettors. What the public last saw impacts how they wager the following week. As such, bookmakers will inflate the lines against teams that had a poor offensive game.
Contrarian gamblers have profited by going against the grain and betting low-scoring teams. This strategy is even more effective if there is lopsided public action:
Since 2003, teams that scored fewer than 10 points and are getting 30% or less of the spread tickets have gone 148-94-4 (61.2%) ATS. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $4,530 following this system.
Sharp bettors have already taken Tennessee plus the points. The Titans have moved from +4.5 to +4 despite heavy betting on the Falcons. When the line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages, this is called reverse line movement and is an indication of professional money.
Betting percentages change throughout the week, which can cause games to move in and out of this system, so be sure to save this Pro System and get real-time updates as matches occur.