Week 7 Betting Market: Bettors Buying Bills Despite Josh Allen Injury

Oct 17, 2018 9:13 AM EDT
  • NFL bettors are buying back the Buffalo Bills even though starting quarterback Josh Allen will miss the game due to an injured elbow.
  • The Patriots-Bears game is attracting sharp action on both sides, as it moves off and on the key number of three.
  • The Chiefs' over/under of 58.5 is once again bordering on history as Kansas City takes on the Bengals on Sunday Night Football.

The season’s almost halfway over … where does the time go? Don’t let yourself get too distracted betting on basketball, though. There’s still plenty of early action taking place on the Week 7 NFL slate.

Here’s what has happened since Week 7 lines opened, along with last week’s lookahead lines from Westgate for comparison’s sake.

Big Moves

Buffalo Bills (+8) at Indianapolis Colts

Bills quarterback Josh Allen will not play in this game due to an injured elbow, leaving Buffalo with the following options:

  • Nathan Peterman: Arguably the worst quarterback ever
  • Derek Anderson: 35-year-old journeyman who has started four games since 2011

So many great choices …

Even though the Bills might as well forfeit, the line jumped two points in their favor on Tuesday morning. Perhaps this says more about Indy than Buffalo.

The 1-5 Colts don’t really deserve to be 9.5-point favorites — which is where they opened — against anyone, and early bettors were clearly willing to take all those points with Buffalo regardless of the quarterback.

Indy is also dealing with 18 injured players, including star wideout T.Y. Hilton.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-5)

These two teams are going to battle it out for most the underwhelming team award I reckon. The Texans have just about the ugliest 3-3 record I’ve ever seen, but the Jaguars have been as two-faced as Jerry’s girlfriend in The Strike.

Nevertheless, big money is driving up the Jags’ line. They opened as a 3.5-point favorite, but are up to -5 thanks to more than 70% of spread dollars.

On Monday afternoon, bets and dollars were relatively split, but over the past 24 hours, the cash has heavily shifted in the Jaguars’ favor. Invest in Bortcoin!

Key Numbers

Minnesota Vikings (-3) at New York Jets

At 3-3, the Jets have actually been … decent. Sam Darnold has looked impressive over the past couple of weeks and the Jets are tied for the ninth-best point differential in the league at +26.

Meanwhile, the Vikings have actually been outscored by their opponents by eight points despite a 3-2-1 record.

Minnesota is getting more than 70% of the bets so far, and I totally understand it. Much better team on paper, better preseason expectations by a mile, the Vikings are not the Jets, etc.

New England Patriots (-3) at Chicago Bears

This game has had some significant sharp action rolling in over the past two days. Numerous bet signals at Sports Insights have been triggered on both sides as pro bettors have liked the Patriots at -3, but the Bears at +3.5.

It looks like this line could be flip-flopping on those numbers all week, so if you like the Pats, don’t take them -3.5, and if you like the Bears, don’t take them at +3.

Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

The Browns finally played like garbage for the first time all season as they were trounced at home by the Chargers.

Jameis Winston made a valiant effort in his first start back in Atlanta, but ultimately fell short. Over the course of the season, sharp bettors have made a habit of betting on the Browns, but they’ve been invisible so far on this game.

The heavy juice on Tampa suggests that the line may soon move to -3.5, which may be what pros are waiting for before taking Cleveland.

Over/Unders

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (58.5)

Another week, another Chiefs over/under approaching history.

Last week in New England, the over/under closed at 59.5, which was the second-highest in our database. This week, the Chiefs will have the chance to break the record of 60 yet again.

With more than 80% of bets and dollars on the over, there’s a decent chance this total goes for gold over the course of the week.

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens (50)

What happens when the best offense in the league goes up against the best defense? Well, it appears as if sharp bettors believe the defense has the upper hand.

The Ravens D, which has allowed fewer than 13 points per game, has the tall task of stopping the Saints offense, which has scored 36 points per game.

We have a little ticket/money discrepancy for this over/under, as 70% of the bets are on the over, but 70% of the dollars are on the under.

This has caused the total to drop between 0.5 and 1.5 points across the market since opening.

Credit:

Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen

Follow Mark Gallant on Twitter
@marky_money

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
HOU
WAS
43
+3
42.5
+3
CIN
BAL
--
--
--
--
PIT
JAC
47.5
+6
47
+5
CAR
DET
50.5
+3
49.5
+4.5
DAL
ATL
47.5
-4.5
48.5
-3
TEN
IND
48
-3
49
-1
TB
NYG
52
PK
52
-1.5
OAK
ARI
41
-4
40.5
-5.5
DEN
LAC
47
-7.5
46.5
-7
PHI
NO
54.5
-9
56
-8.5
MIN
CHI
45.5
-2.5
44.5
-2.5
KC
LA
63.5
-1
63.5
-3.5