Schwartz’s Favorite NFL Win Totals: Why You Should Bet the Ravens Right Now
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson
- Former offensive lineman Geoff Schwartz analyzes 2019 NFL win totals and offers his four favorite bets.
Sure, it’s March Madness and the start of the Major League Baseball season. But it’s also NFL win total season.
CG Technology was the first sportsbook to release win totals for the 2019 season. And I have some thoughts.
Let’s start with my favorite bet, then highlight a few more interesting totals.
Baltimore Ravens Under 8.5 Wins
This is the only one bet I’d make right now.
The Ravens went 6-1 over their final seven regular-season games to win the AFC North and host a playoff game, which they promptly lost to the Chargers.
Their third-ranked defense in Football Outsiders’ DVOA led the way over that streak. They harassed quarterbacks, stopped the run and forced turnovers. Well, that defense is going to look different on paper heading into 2019.
The Ravens lost three linebackers to free agency, including decorated pass rusher Terrell Suggs. They did replace Eric Weddle with Earl Thomas, but as it stands, their defense is worse. I’d also expect some regression with a tougher schedule: Cleveland is much improved, Pittsburgh will be just fine without Antonio Brown and they add the NFC West and AFC East to the mix, plus Kansas City and Houston.
Yet, while the defense could regress, it should still be a top-10 unit.
The biggest worry is at quarterback and with their offensive scheme.