2019 NFL Win Totals: 4 Over/Unders to Bet Right Now

Apr 21, 2019 12:05 AM EDT
Credit:

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning

  • The NFL released its 2019 schedule and oddsmakers have posted win totals for all 32 teams.
  • Using the Bet Labs NFL model, we highlight the four best win total bets to jump on right now.

The NFL announced its 2019 schedule and our Bet Labs model ran 10,000 simulations of the upcoming season. Here is a look at how our projected win totals for every team compare to the oddsmakers’ over/unders.

For the most part, our numbers are in line with CG Technology’s NFL win total odds. Based on the projections, 25 of 32 teams were within one game of their season win total. However, a few teams are offering bettors value.

To determine if there is value betting a team to go over or under their win total, we compared our projections to betting odds.

For example: Cleveland’s win total is listed at 9 (under +100). In order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Browns under they would need to win eight or fewer games 50.0% (which is 100/(100+100)) of the time.

Baker Mayfield & Co. are projected to win eight or fewer games 56.5% of the time with a chance of a push if the team wins exactly nine games. This means there is slight value in placing an under bet at +100 odds.

Based on the difference in implied probability and projected chance, here are the two best over and under bets available. In the past two seasons, using the same analysis our top four plays combined to go 7-1, covering by 2.5 games on average.

New York Giants – Over 6 Wins

  • Current odds: -110, Implied Probability: 52.4%
  • Giants go over win total 78.0% of the time

The Giants traded superstar Odell Beckham Jr. to the Cleveland Browns and Eli Manning is still the quarterback. Not great for a franchise that won five games one year ago and finished last in the NFC East.

But it is important to not overreact to one move, like the Beckham trade. Remember, everyone thought the Dallas Cowboys lost the Amari Cooper trade when it was first reported, but after a playoff run the move looks smart.

The G-Men now have three of the first 37 picks in the draft, thanks to trading Beckham. Dave Gettleman has an opportunity to land a quarterback of the future and improve a defense that finished 24th in DVOA last season.

Perhaps the greatest reason to be optimistic about the Giants in 2019 is that they have the sixth-easiest schedule in football. New York faces only three playoff teams from last season. With an easy schedule, we project the team to win eight games on average.

If Gettleman nails the draft a postseason appearance isn’t out of the picture.

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