2019 NFL Win Totals: 4 Over/Unders to Bet Right Now
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning
- The NFL released its 2019 schedule and oddsmakers have posted win totals for all 32 teams.
- Using the Bet Labs NFL model, we highlight the four best win total bets to jump on right now.
The NFL announced its 2019 schedule and our Bet Labs model ran 10,000 simulations of the upcoming season. Here is a look at how our projected win totals for every team compare to the oddsmakers’ over/unders.
For the most part, our numbers are in line with CG Technology’s NFL win total odds. Based on the projections, 25 of 32 teams were within one game of their season win total. However, a few teams are offering bettors value.
To determine if there is value betting a team to go over or under their win total, we compared our projections to betting odds.
For example: Cleveland’s win total is listed at 9 (under +100). In order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Browns under they would need to win eight or fewer games 50.0% (which is 100/(100+100)) of the time.
Baker Mayfield & Co. are projected to win eight or fewer games 56.5% of the time with a chance of a push if the team wins exactly nine games. This means there is slight value in placing an under bet at +100 odds.
Based on the difference in implied probability and projected chance, here are the two best over and under bets available. In the past two seasons, using the same analysis our top four plays combined to go 7-1, covering by 2.5 games on average.
New York Giants – Over 6 Wins
- Current odds: -110, Implied Probability: 52.4%
- Giants go over win total 78.0% of the time
The Giants traded superstar Odell Beckham Jr. to the Cleveland Browns and Eli Manning is still the quarterback. Not great for a franchise that won five games one year ago and finished last in the NFC East.
But it is important to not overreact to one move, like the Beckham trade. Remember, everyone thought the Dallas Cowboys lost the Amari Cooper trade when it was first reported, but after a playoff run the move looks smart.
The G-Men now have three of the first 37 picks in the draft, thanks to trading Beckham. Dave Gettleman has an opportunity to land a quarterback of the future and improve a defense that finished 24th in DVOA last season.
Perhaps the greatest reason to be optimistic about the Giants in 2019 is that they have the sixth-easiest schedule in football. New York faces only three playoff teams from last season. With an easy schedule, we project the team to win eight games on average.
If Gettleman nails the draft a postseason appearance isn’t out of the picture.
Cincinnati Bengals – Over 6 Wins
- Current odds: -115, Implied Probability: 53.5%
- Bengals go over win total 68.1% of the time
The Bengals started the 2018 season 4-1 before limping to a 6-10 finish. Injuries were a big part of the team’s disappointing season. Andy Dalton, A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert were all lost to season ending injuries.
A full season from Dalton and Green, the continued development of Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd, plus the addition of new head coach Zac Taylor — former quarterback coach for the Los Angeles Rams under Sean McVay — should help improve an offense that averaged 23.0 points per game (17th in the league) last season.
Tennessee Titans – Under 8.5 Wins
- Current odds: -120, Implied Probability: 54.5%
- Titans go under win total 83.4% of the time
Marcus Mariota can’t stay healthy. The Titans quarterback has never played a full 16-game schedule and when he is on the field the results have been mediocre. Last season, Mariota had a 76.8 overall grade according to ProFootballFocus, which ranked 18th among qualified starters.
Tennessee traded for Ryan Tannehill as a backup this offseason, but the Titans faithful can’t be too excited about the former Dolphin filling in for Mariota. Last season, Tannehill finished 32nd among 33 passers with a total QBR of 35.4.
The Titans finished last season 27th in scoring (19.4 ppg) and it is unlikely that the offense takes a major step forward with either quarterback.
With bad options under center the team is already behind the eight ball when it comes to going over its season win total. The schedulers didn’t do the franchise any favors. According to our projections, the Titans will face the fourth-toughest schedule this fall.
Los Angeles Rams – Under 10.5 Wins
- Current odds: -105, Implied Probability: 51.2%
- Rams go under win total 59.6% of the time
The Rams won 13 games one year ago, tied with the New Orleans Saints for the best record in the NFL. With top-end talent on both sides of the ball we project LA as one of the best teams in the league, including a 72.2% chance of making the playoffs (third-most likely team) and 10.8% to win the Super Bowl (fourth).
Sean McVay’s team has a lot going for it but history is against the franchise racking up another gaudy win total. Since 2003, 37 teams won 13 or more games and none of them improved their record the following season. In fact, on average those 13-win teams won 8.7 games the next year.
There are reasons the Rams will suffer the same fate. For starters, the team went 6-1 in games decided by one score and teams tend to regress to .500 in games decided by eight or fewer points.
LA also went 6-0 in the division, which will be difficult to repeat. The Seahawks are always a tough matchup with Russell Wilson, the 49ers will welcome back a healthy Jimmy Garoppolo and the Cardinals could take Kyler Murray with the No. 1 pick.
It would be surprising if the Rams didn’t reach the postseason, but no one should be shocked if the team wins 10 or fewer games.