Our Projected 2019 NFL Win Totals, Playoff Chances, More After Schedule Release


USA Today Sports. Pictured: T.Y. Hilton, Drew Brees, Todd Gurley

Apr 20, 2019, 09:30 PM EDT
  • Win totals. Chances to win every division. Chances to make the playoffs. Chances to win the Super Bowl.
  • See our model's top-level projections for all 32 teams following the schedule release.

Our Bet Labs model ran 10,000 simulations of the 2019 NFL season to project win totals, playoff chances and more for every team following Wednesday night’s schedule release.

We’ll run through some of those top-level projections below, but let’s highlight a few takeaways first:

  • The Kansas City Chiefs (10.55), New England Patriots (10.4) and Los Angeles Rams (10) have the top-three win total projections while the Arizona Cardinals (4.9) and Miami Dolphins (4.95) have the worst two.
  • Our simulations give the New Orleans Saints the third-best chances to win the Super Bowl at 12.03% with the Rams (12.64%) and Chiefs (12.62%) just ahead. The Patriots have the fourth-best chances at 10.77% and … the Colts the fifth-best at 7.08% (yes, seriously).
  • The model also projects a close race for the AFC North between the Pittsburgh Steelers (30.13%), Baltimore Ravens (30.76%) and Cleveland Browns (28.04%) while the Patriots have (unsurprisingly) the best chance to win any division at 81.93%.

Now let’s dig into the model’s win totals for all 32 teams plus their chances to win their division, make the playoffs and win the Super Bowl.

Jump to: AFC East | AFC North | AFC South |AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South |NFC West


Buffalo Bills

  • Projected Win Total: 6.7
  • Chance to Win Division: 7.11%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 14.5%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 0.18%

Miami Dolphins

  • Projected Win Total: 4.95
  • Chance to Win Division: 1.41%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 2.8%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 0%

New England Patriots

  • Projected Win Total: 10.4
  • Chance to Win Division: 81.93%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 86.73%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 10.77%

New York Jets

  • Projected Win Total: 7.11
  • Chance to Win Division: 9.55%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 19.76%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 0.18%