Our Projected 2019 NFL Win Totals, Playoff Chances, More After Schedule Release

Our Projected 2019 NFL Win Totals, Playoff Chances, More After Schedule Release article feature image
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USA Today Sports. Pictured: T.Y. Hilton, Drew Brees, Todd Gurley

  • Win totals. Chances to win every division. Chances to make the playoffs. Chances to win the Super Bowl.
  • See our model's top-level projections for all 32 teams following the schedule release.

Our Bet Labs model ran 10,000 simulations of the 2019 NFL season to project win totals, playoff chances and more for every team following Wednesday night’s schedule release.

We’ll run through some of those top-level projections below, but let’s highlight a few takeaways first:

  • The Kansas City Chiefs (10.55), New England Patriots (10.4) and Los Angeles Rams (10) have the top-three win total projections while the Arizona Cardinals (4.9) and Miami Dolphins (4.95) have the worst two.
  • Our simulations give the New Orleans Saints the third-best chances to win the Super Bowl at 12.03% with the Rams (12.64%) and Chiefs (12.62%) just ahead. The Patriots have the fourth-best chances at 10.77% and … the Colts the fifth-best at 7.08% (yes, seriously).
  • The model also projects a close race for the AFC North between the Pittsburgh Steelers (30.13%), Baltimore Ravens (30.76%) and Cleveland Browns (28.04%) while the Patriots have (unsurprisingly) the best chance to win any division at 81.93%.

Now let’s dig into the model’s win totals for all 32 teams plus their chances to win their division, make the playoffs and win the Super Bowl.

Jump to: AFC East | AFC North | AFC South |AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South |NFC West

AFC EAST

Buffalo Bills

  • Projected Win Total: 6.7
  • Chance to Win Division: 7.11%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 14.5%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 0.18%

Miami Dolphins

  • Projected Win Total: 4.95
  • Chance to Win Division: 1.41%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 2.8%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 0%

New England Patriots

  • Projected Win Total: 10.4
  • Chance to Win Division: 81.93%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 86.73%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 10.77%

New York Jets

  • Projected Win Total: 7.11
  • Chance to Win Division: 9.55%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 19.76%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 0.18%

AFC NORTH

Baltimore Ravens

  • Projected Win Total: 8.78
  • Chance to Win Division: 30.76%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 49.69%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 2.63%

Cincinnati Bengals

  • Projected Win Total: 7.41
  • Chance to Win Division: 11.07%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 22.85%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 0.43%

Cleveland Browns

  • Projected Win Total: 8.66
  • Chance to Win Division: 28.04%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 45.98%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 1.95%

Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Projected Win Total: 8.82
  • Chance to Win Division: 30.13%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 49.18%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 3.01%

AFC SOUTH

Houston Texans

  • Projected Win Total: 8.52
  • Chance to Win Division: 26.94%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 44.89%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 2.38%

Indianapolis Colts

  • Projected Win Total: 9.76
  • Chance to Win Division: 56.95%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 71.34%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 7.08%

Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Projected Win Total: 7
  • Chance to Win Division: 9.03%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 18.24%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 0.3%

Tennessee Titans

  • Projected Win Total: 6.61
  • Chance to Win Division: 7.08%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 14.05%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 0.25%

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos

  • Projected Win Total: 6.79
  • Chance to Win Division: 5.31%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 14.87%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 0.24%

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Projected Win Total: 10.55
  • Chance to Win Division: 63.39%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 82.64%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 12.62%

Los Angeles Chargers

  • Projected Win Total: 9.2
  • Chance to Win Division: 29.83%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 57.93%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 4.08%

Oakland Raiders

  • Projected Win Total: 5.52
  • Chance to Win Division: 1.47%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 4.55%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 0.03%

NFC EAST

Dallas Cowboys

  • Projected Win Total: 8
  • Chance to Win Division: 24.83%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 34.67%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 1.35%

New York Giants

  • Projected Win Total: 8
  • Chance to Win Division: 22.45%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 33.46%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 1.04%

Philadelphia Eagles

  • Projected Win Total: 9.13
  • Chance to Win Division: 47.39%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 58.2%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 4.54%

Washington Redskins

  • Projected Win Total: 6.14
  • Chance to Win Division: 5.33%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 8.83%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 0.09%

NFC NORTH

Chicago Bears

  • Projected Win Total: 8.8
  • Chance to Win Division: 32.95%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 48.61%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 3.81%

Detroit Lions

  • Projected Win Total: 7.13
  • Chance to Win Division: 10.31%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 18.35%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 0.49%

Green Bay Packers

  • Projected Win Total: 9.17
  • Chance to Win Division: 40.45%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 56.16%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 5.24%

Minnesota Vikings

  • Projected Win Total: 7.78
  • Chance to Win Division: 16.29%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 28.33%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 1.21%

NFC SOUTH

Atlanta Falcons

  • Projected Win Total: 8.19
  • Chance to Win Division: 20.28%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 36.66%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 2.43%

Carolina Panthers

  • Projected Win Total: 8.19
  • Chance to Win Division: 18.66%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 34.67%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 1.97%

New Orleans Saints

  • Projected Win Total: 9.83
  • Chance to Win Division: 52.63%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 69.05%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 12.03%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Projected Win Total: 7.14
  • Chance to Win Division: 8.43%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 17.5%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 0.56%

NFC WEST

Arizona Cardinals

  • Projected Win Total: 4.9
  • Chance to Win Division: 0.96%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 2.23%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 0.01%

Los Angeles Rams

  • Projected Win Total: 10
  • Chance to Win Division: 54.72%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 72.16%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 12.64%

San Francisco 49ers

  • Projected Win Total: 8.07
  • Chance to Win Division: 16.88%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 33.51%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 2.28%

Seattle Seahawks

  • Projected Win Total: 8.76
  • Chance to Win Division: 27.44%
  • Chance to Make Playoffs: 47.61%
  • Chance to Win Super Bowl: 4.18%

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