Raiders-Broncos Betting Preview: Recency Bias Creating Value on Oakland

Raiders-Broncos Betting Preview: Recency Bias Creating Value on Oakland article feature image

Kyle Terada, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Derek Carr (L), Von Miller

Betting odds: Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos

  • Spread: Broncos -6
  • Over/Under: 45.5
  • Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting market: It took a little while, but the Broncos, who could be found at anywhere from -4.5 to -6.5 in the early portions of the week, have settled in at -6 since at the time of writing (see live data here). They are getting 57% of bets and 65% of dollars.

We’ve also tracked a steam move and reverse line move on the over, which has gone from 45 to 45.5/46 since opening. — Mark Gallant

Injury watch: The Raiders’ defensive line is in trouble, and not just because they traded Khalil Mack. They will be without Eddie Vanderdoes (knee, PUP) and Justin Ellis (foot, IR), while rookie defensive tackle PJ Hall (ankle) hasn’t practiced all week.

The offense is tentatively expected to have receiver Brandon LaFell (back), running back Marshawn Lynch (shoulder), center Rodney Hudson (ankle), and guard Gabe Jackson (pectoral) considering each has at least practiced in a limited capacity. — Ian Hartitz

Note: All injury info as of Thursday 9/13 at 5:30pm EST. Please visit our Week 2 Injury Dashboard for updated daily practice participation and game statuses up until game time.

Trends to know: The Lions and Raiders were the only two teams in Week 1 to lose at home by at least 20 points and they both happened to play on Monday Night Football.

Since 2003, teams that lose at home by 20 or more points and are listed as underdogs in their next game are 114-93-3 against the spread (+13.3 units), including 106-82-3 ATS (+16.5 units) as an underdog of a field goal or more. — Evan Abrams

Short week on the road to the altitude of Denver can’t be fun. We mentioned this last week, but the Broncos did it again. Since 2000, Denver is 22-1 SU when playing at home in the first two weeks of the season. — Stuckey

DFS edge: Emmanuel Sanders led the Broncos with a 28.2% target share in Week 1, which isn’t surprising since he ran 62.2% of his routes from the slot (per Pro Football Focus), and Case Keenum peppered Adam Thielen in a similar way with the Vikings last season.

Sanders will primarily match up against Leon Hall, who allowed a passer rating of 106.7 when targeted last week. On FanDuel, Sanders costs $6,800 with a +2.27 Projected Plus/Minus and 85% Bargain Rating. — Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Raiders +6.

I hate the Raiders this year.

I hate them so much that I bet Oakland under 8.5 regular season wins before the season started. However, the current line of Oakland +6 at Denver is simply too much of a market overreaction to ignore.

Last week, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Denver as a 3-point favorite in Week 2 lookahead lines, meaning the current line (-6) has moved off the key number of three, through four and onto six, another key number.

Since 2003, NFL teams coming off losses of 20 or more points are 401-337 (54.3%) ATS. When the team is an underdog of three or more points in the following game, the ATS record improves to 241-182-10 (57%). Dogs of six points or more? Yup, the cover percentage improves to 58.2%.

I’ll let the market (57% of spread tickets) continue to overreact to Oakland’s blowout loss on Monday Night Football and buyback the three free points of line value. — PJ Walsh

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.