Raiders-Chiefs Betting Preview: Will K.C. Continue to Let Bettors Down?

Betting odds: Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs

• Spread: Chiefs -13.5
• Over/Under: 52.5
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS

Betting market: Some square books have the Chiefs as 14-point favorites, but the majority of the market has the Chiefs at -13.5. They’re commanding about 60% of the bets and not much sharp activity has come in on either side.

The over/under has seen some, though: After opening at 54 at most books, it’s down to 52.5, as steam hit the under at 53.5.

The under is also kind of a trendy pick among the public, getting close to 60% of the bets (see live betting data here). — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: The Chiefs lost to the Seahawks in Week 16. Since 2003, good teams like Kansas City (won 70%+ of their games) have gone 64-44 against the spread after a loss in December or later in the season, according to our Bet Labs data.

If they face a bad opponent (won 30% or less of their games), like the Raiders, these teams have gone 13-5 ATS. — John Ewing

Did you know? It might be time to state the obvious: The Chiefs haven’t covered a game since Week 9, when they defeated the Browns 37-21 on the road.

KC isn't the only team that hasn't covered the spread during this span. Did I mention Kansas City started the season 7-0 ATS? — Evan Abrams

Playoff picture: If the Chiefs beat Oakland, they'll secure the AFC's No. 1 overall seed. That's not the only way they can land home-field throughout the playoffs, but it is the simplest (and most likely).

The Raiders winning would represent one of the biggest upsets of the season — and it'd be a boon for the Chargers, who can jump from the 5-seed to the 1-seed if they beat the Broncos and the Chiefs lose. — Scott T. Miller

Biggest mismatch: Chiefs Pass Offense vs. Raiders Pass Defense

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes leads the league with his 9.5 adjusted yards per attempt and an 81.5 Total QBR.

If he throws for 184 yards and two touchdowns vs. Oakland, he will become only the second quarterback in NFL history with a 5,000-yard, 50-touchdown passing campaign. (The first was Peyton Manning in his record-setting 2013 MVP campaign.)

The Chiefs should be especially motivated to play to their strengths. Given the status of running backs Kareem Hunt (waived) and Spencer Ware (injured, hamstring), the Chiefs are clearly at their best in the passing game, where Mahomes, wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce can challenge opposing defenses.

The Raiders rank 31st overall in pass-defense DVOA overall and 32nd in particular against tight ends. They are extremely vulnerable.

With a big performance, Mahomes can put the finishing touches on an MVP season and give his team home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. He should dominate the feeble Raiders pass defense. — Matthew Freedman

Which team is healthier? Raiders

Both the Chiefs and Raiders (lol) will be fully attempting to win this one. The Chiefs are dealing with injuries to linebacker Dee Ford (knee) and wide receiver Sammy Watkins (foot), but they’re tentatively expected to welcome back both Ware (shoulder) and cornerback Kendall Fuller (wrist).

The Raiders should be all systems go on offense, although tight end Jared Cook (ribs) and running back Jalen Richard (ankle) might not be operating at 100%.

The defense could be without starting cornerback Gareon Conley (concussion) in addition to Daryl Worley (shoulder, IR).

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: The Chiefs are in a must-win game against the Raiders on Sunday, which makes Mahomes extremely appealing on a slate filled with some uncertainty.

The Chiefs boast the highest team total on the slate (33) and Mahomes' 0.72 DraftKings and 0.67 FanDuel points per game trails only Lamar Jackson this season.

Given Mahomes' high floor and ceiling, he’ll anchor cash games for me this week. — Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Under 52.5

One of my favorite bets is the Chiefs home under. In the Andy Reid era (since 2013), no home team has made under bettors more money than the Chiefs have with their 17-29-1 over/under record, good for a 22.9% return on investment (per Bet Labs).

The outdoor and raucous Arrowhead Stadium is a hard place to play, especially once the weather is cold, and it’s not just road teams that have played worse in Kansas City this year (per the RotoViz Game Splits App).

• Chiefs Home Games: 52.86 o/u, 52.14 points scored, Chiefs 32, Opponents 20.14
• Chiefs Road Games: 55.19 o/u, 72.87 points scored, Chiefs 38.25, Opponents 34.62

Throughout the Reid era, the Chiefs have scored 2.81 fewer points at home and opponents have scored 6.04 fewer points in Kansas City.

Divisional rematches late in the season tend to go under, but the 73 points the Chiefs and Raiders combined to score in Week 13 has inflated this line a bit. — Matthew Freedman

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.