Koerner: My Way-Too-Early Projections for Odell Beckham’s 2019 Season with Browns

Mar 13, 2019 9:16 PM EDT
  • The Giants traded Odell Beckham Jr. to the Cleveland Browns on Tuesday night.
  • The move adds another weapon to the Browns already-explosive offense.
  • How many catches, yards and touchdowns can we expect from Beckham in his new home? Sean Koerner runs some early numbers.

It’s a bit too early to be referencing my NFL player projections I typically build in June after the draft is complete and free agency settles down. But with the Odell Beckham Jr. news on Tuesday night, let’s take a quick stab at some rough initial projections for his stats this year on the Browns.

First off, let’s nail down his expected receptions and work from there. In the past three seasons, Odell received roughly a 28% target share on the Giants. With the Browns, he will likely compete with Jarvis Landry for targets along with TE David Njoku.

I’m going to estimate him at right around a 26% target share with 575 total pass attempts by the Browns this year. I’ll give him 61.5% completion rate with Baker Mayfield. That comes to 91.9 receptions.

What about yards and touchdowns?