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Freedman: Odell Beckham Jr. Props, Picks and Projections for 2019

Mar 15, 2019 11:50 PM EDT
Credit:

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Odell Beckham Jr.

  • After spending the first five years of his career with the Giants, wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. has been traded to the Browns.
  • Matthew Freedman makes his picks for Beckham's 2019 props, complete with his own projections for the Browns wide receiver.

One of the best wide receivers in the league, Odell Beckham Jr. is a New York Giant no more.

Against all odds, the Giants traded Beckham to the Cleveland Browns, who are now +1400 to win the Super Bowl.

In his half decade of NFL action, OBJ has more than earned his diva reputation, but that doesn’t mean he’s not great. In my dynasty rankings, OBJ is a top-five player. He might be the best wide receiver in the league.

So what should we expect from Beckham in his first season with the Browns? Here’s my analysis of his 2019 player props.

For daily performance-based player props, follow me in The Action Network app.

Odell Beckham Jr.’s Total Receptions

  • 91.5: Over -120, Under -120
  • 89.5: Over -115, Under -115

In Sean Koerner’s way-too-early 2019 projections for Beckham, he gave OBJ 91.9 receptions. That number seems about right to me.

In every season of his career, Beckham has had more than 10 targets per game. Across his 59 games, he’s averaged 10.5 targets.

For his career, OBJ has a 62.7% catch rate. Last year, he had a 62.1% mark. That number seems pretty representative — but it is very possible that with Baker Mayfield at quarterback instead of Eli Manning, Beckham could have a higher catch rate.

Regardless, Beckham has a career average of 6.6 receptions per game, and he’s been especially consistent ever since his breakout rookie campaign.

  • 2018: 6.4
  • 2017: 6.3
  • 2016: 6.3
  • 2015: 6.4
  • 2014: 7.6

Head coach Freddie Kitchens was an aggressive play-caller as the interim coordinator last season, and new offensive coordinator Todd Monken — a longtime wide receivers coach and passing game coordinator in the college ranks — ran an inspiring air-based attack last year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

With the triumvirate of Mayfield, Kitchens and Monken working to get him the ball, there’s no reason to think that Beckham won’t hit his career marks of 10.5 targets and 6.6 receptions per game.

With Beckham, the primary question is how many games he will play.