Raybon: Best Packers vs. 49ers Prop Picks Based on How Each Defense Did Against Certain Types

Credit:

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Jones, Aaron Rodgers

Jan 19, 2020, 05:18 PM EST

I analyzed how every NFL Defense performed against various player props throughout the regular and postseason.

How can my findings inform how to bet the NFC Championship Game? Let’s dig into my data then the six prop picks I made based on it.

Packers vs. 49ers Props & Picks: NFC Championship Game

Below is a table of how each defense performed against the various player prop categories for each position in 2019.

Green Bay Packers

  • QB vs. SF: rush yd (55%), pass TD (47%), comp (44%), pass att (40%), pass yd (24%)
  • RB vs. SF: rush yd (37%), rec (33%), rec yd (8%),
  • WR vs. SF: rec (50%), rec  yd (32%)
  • TE vs. SF: rec (30%), rec yd (26%)

The 49ers allowed an NFL-low 4.66 yards per play during the regular season. Their supreme ability to limit opponents’ efficiency shows up in their sub-40% over hit rates allowed against every yardage prop except QB rushing yards.

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