Raybon: Best Packers vs. 49ers Prop Picks Based on How Each Defense Did Against Certain Types
Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Jones, Aaron Rodgers
I analyzed how every NFL Defense performed against various player props throughout the regular and postseason.
How can my findings inform how to bet the NFC Championship Game? Let’s dig into my data then the six prop picks I made based on it.
Packers vs. 49ers Props & Picks: NFC Championship Game
Below is a table of how each defense performed against the various player prop categories for each position in 2019.
Green Bay Packers
- QB vs. SF: rush yd (55%), pass TD (47%), comp (44%), pass att (40%), pass yd (24%)
- RB vs. SF: rush yd (37%), rec (33%), rec yd (8%),
- WR vs. SF: rec (50%), rec yd (32%)
- TE vs. SF: rec (30%), rec yd (26%)
The 49ers allowed an NFL-low 4.66 yards per play during the regular season. Their supreme ability to limit opponents’ efficiency shows up in their sub-40% over hit rates allowed against every yardage prop except QB rushing yards.
QB Aaron Rodgers
- Under 238.5 Passing Yards
- Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
- Over 12.5 Rushing Yards
I expect the 49ers to make life tough on Rodgers — they’ve held quarterbacks under their yardage prop 76% of the time and under their touchdown prop 53% of the time — but I also expect head coach Matt LaFleur to incorporate more moving pockets and Rodgers to be quicker to take off and run.
I would bet passing yards down to 235.5 (-120), passing TDs down to 1.5 (-130), and rushing yards 12.5 (-149) or 13.5(-115). I break Rodgers’ props down in more detail here.
RB Aaron Jones
- Under 25.5 Receiving Yards
Jones has gone over 13 receiving yards in just seven of 17 games while the 49ers have allowed just 8% of running back receiving yard props to hit the over.
There’s a chance Jones cedes a few passing-down snaps to a healthier Jamaal Williams and the dynamic Tyler Ervin, but even if Jones sees targets, he’s at risk of suffering the same fate as Dalvin Cook, who the 49ers keyed in on and held to 8 receiving yards on six catches in the Divisional Round.
I’d bet this down to 21.5.
TE Jimmy Graham
- Under 25.5 Receiving Yards
Graham had a median of 20 receiving yards this season, and only 32% of tight ends have gone over their receiving yardage prop against San Francisco.
I’d bet this down to 23.5.
San Francisco 49ers
- QB vs. GB: pass yd (53%), rush yd (50%), comp (47%), pass att (46%), pass TD (38%)
- RB vs. GB: rush yd (54%), rec yd (50%), rec (44%)
- WR vs. GB: rec yd (41%), rec (40%)
- TE vs. GB: rec (65%), rec yd (47%)
The Packers finished ninth in points allowed (19.6) and 11th yards per play (5.7) allowed during the regular season. Most props have been just under 50/50 against the Packers, so I’m only seeing value on one prop.
WR Emmanuel Sanders
- Under 4.0 Receptions
In 11 games with the 49ers, Sanders has gone over 4 receptions twice and under seven times while catching exactly four twice. Only 40% of WRs have gone over their reception prop against the Packers this season.
I would bet this down to 3.5 (-120).