Best Panthers-Steelers TNF Props: Over/Under 4.5 Total Sacks?

Best Panthers-Steelers TNF Props: Over/Under 4.5 Total Sacks? article feature image

Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackle Cameron Heyward (97).

  • There are two player props offering betting value in the Thursday Night Football game between the Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers.
  • Using our FantasyLabs player props tool, we analyze how to bet receiving props involving the both defenses and Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey.

There are two NFL player prop bets offering value in the Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers matchup on Thursday Night Football, which kicks off at 8:20 p.m. ET on FOX/NFL Network.

The Action Network’s public betting data will often be used in this data-driven analysis of props, along with the player props tool at FantasyLabs.

>> Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to get the smartest NFL conversation delivered into your inbox.

*All odds as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday

Panthers/Steelers Total Sacks

The pick: Over 4.5 sacks (+120)

While both offensive lines rank inside the top 12 in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate, each team’s offensive line may be hampered by injuries tonight.

Panthers center Ryan Kalil (ankle) hasn’t practiced all week and is considered a game-time decision, and the Steelers already ruled out tackle Marcus Gilbert (knee), Pro Football Focus’ No. 23 tackle in pass blocking.

Where this pick can fail is if Cam Newton can successfully avoid pressure with his legs. However, the Steelers love to send pressure. Their 34.76% pressure rate is the fifth-highest mark in the league, and their defense averages 3.25 sacks per game — the second-highest mark, per Sports Info Solutions.

Further, while the Panthers’ rate of 2.63 sacks per game ranks just 15th, their 36.75% pressure rate is the third-highest rate.

Given that both teams rank in the top five in pressure rate, I’m willing to take a chance with the plus-money odds.

Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey 

The pick: Over 5.5 receptions (-115)

Overall, 5.5 receptions is a fair line for McCaffrey and one where the over is appealing since we can safely project his target volume. McCaffrey leads his team with 7.3 targets per game and 23% of the Panthers’ target share.

Additionally, he is averaging 6.12 receptions per game this year, and our head of predictive analytics, Sean Koerner, has McCaffrey projected for six receptions in the FantasyLabs Props Dashboard.

How would you rate this article?

Top Offers

Action Newsletter
Sign Up >
The top betting news and picks for all the big games delivered directly to your inbox daily.
Action Podcasts
Listen >
The award-winning Action Network Podcast covers all angles of betting and DFS from industry-leading pros.
Betting 101
Bet Smarter >
New to betting? No sweat. Check out our betting education hub, which ranges from beginner tips to advanced strategies.
Sports Betting Legalization
Predictions >
When will sports betting be legal in your state? Check our our projections for all 50 states.
Betting Calculators
Try Now >
Easily calculate your winnings for straight bets and parlays using American, Decimal, or Fractional odds.
Expert Picks
Best Bets >
See all of the bets Action Network experts are making in real-time, covering the big games and the hidden gems.

Top Stories