Best Panthers-Steelers TNF Props: Over/Under 4.5 Total Sacks?
Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackle Cameron Heyward (97).
- There are two player props offering betting value in the Thursday Night Football game between the Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers.
- Using our FantasyLabs player props tool, we analyze how to bet receiving props involving the both defenses and Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey.
There are two NFL player prop bets offering value in the Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers matchup on Thursday Night Football, which kicks off at 8:20 p.m. ET on FOX/NFL Network.
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*All odds as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday
Panthers/Steelers Total Sacks
The pick: Over 4.5 sacks (+120)
While both offensive lines rank inside the top 12 in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate, each team’s offensive line may be hampered by injuries tonight.
Panthers center Ryan Kalil (ankle) hasn’t practiced all week and is considered a game-time decision, and the Steelers already ruled out tackle Marcus Gilbert (knee), Pro Football Focus’ No. 23 tackle in pass blocking.
Where this pick can fail is if Cam Newton can successfully avoid pressure with his legs. However, the Steelers love to send pressure. Their 34.76% pressure rate is the fifth-highest mark in the league, and their defense averages 3.25 sacks per game — the second-highest mark, per Sports Info Solutions.
Further, while the Panthers’ rate of 2.63 sacks per game ranks just 15th, their 36.75% pressure rate is the third-highest rate.
Given that both teams rank in the top five in pressure rate, I’m willing to take a chance with the plus-money odds.
Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey
The pick: Over 5.5 receptions (-115)
Overall, 5.5 receptions is a fair line for McCaffrey and one where the over is appealing since we can safely project his target volume. McCaffrey leads his team with 7.3 targets per game and 23% of the Panthers’ target share.
Additionally, he is averaging 6.12 receptions per game this year, and our head of predictive analytics, Sean Koerner, has McCaffrey projected for six receptions in the FantasyLabs Props Dashboard.