Parris Campbell NFL Combine Prop Bet: Over/Under 4.38 Seconds in the 40-Yard Dash?
Greg Bartram-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: WR Parris Campbell
- All eyes will be on Indianapolis this week as prospects try to help their draft stock at the 2019 NFL Combine.
- We've got picks on various performance props, including WR Parris Campbell's 40-yard dash time.
The 2019 NFL Combine is underway and performance props are available at some sportsbooks. Our staff is making official picks for a number of different prospects, including wide receiver Parris Campbell.
Here’s the workout schedule for the various position groups:
- Friday: Running backs, offensive linemen, kickers, special teams
- Saturday: Quarterbacks, wide receivers, tight ends
- Sunday: Defensive linemen, linebackers
- Monday: Defensive backs
Now let’s dig into the Campbell prop, as well as our analysis based on research and official combine data going back to 2006.
Parris Campbell 40-Yard Dash Time
- Over 4.38 Seconds: +200
- Under 4.38 Seconds: -300
Ohio State wide receiver Parris Campbell is expected to be the fastest player at his position at the combine.
In a class teeming with prototypical big-bodied wideouts, Campbell has a more modest size at 6-foot and 205 pounds. Plus, he’s a track athlete. In high school, he set the state record the indoor 60-meter dash.
At Ohio State, he was a big-play producer. As a kick returner, he averaged 30.4 yards per return. As a rusher, he averaged 9.1 yards per carry. As a receiver, he had a 90-1,063-12 stat line, becoming the first player since 2004 (when Urban Meyer was at Utah) to have a 1,000-yard receiving campaign in a Meyer offense.
Campbell is clearly an explosive player.
But that doesn’t mean he’s going to run the 40-yard dash faster than 4.38 seconds.
Over the past 19 years (since 2000), just 16 combine wide receivers have run the 40 in no more than 4.37 seconds at 200-plus pounds.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling (2018): 4.37 seconds at 6’4″ and 206 pounds
- Kevin White (2015): 4.35 seconds at 6’3″ and 215 pounds
- Ryan Swope (2013): 4.34 seconds at 6’0″ and 205 pounds
- Chris Conley (2013): 4.35 seconds at 6’2″ and 213 pounds
- Stephen Hill (2012): 4.36 seconds at 6’4″ and 215 pounds
- Ricardo Lockette (2011): 4.34 seconds at 6’2″ and 211 pounds
- Darrius Heyward-Bey (2009): 4.30 seconds at 6’2″ and 210 pounds
- Mike Sims-Walker (2009): 4.35 seconds at 6’2″ and 209 pounds
- Will Franklin (2008): 4.37 seconds at 6’0″ and 214 pounds
- Andre Caldwell (2008): 4.35 seconds at 6’0″ and 204 pounds
- Calvin Johnson (2007): 4.35 seconds at 6’5″ and 239 pounds
- Jason Hill (2007): 4.36 seconds at 6’0″ and 204 pounds
- Devin Aromashodu (2006): 4.35 seconds at 6’2″ and 201 pounds
- Chad Jackson (2006): 4.32 seconds at 6’1″ and 213 pounds
- Tyrone Calico (2003): 4.34 seconds at 6’4″ and 223 pounds
- Chris Chambers (2001): 4.33 seconds at 6’0″ and 210 pounds
There’s a chance we won’t see such a receiver this year. And there’s a decent chance that, if we do, he won’t be Campbell.
I expect Campbell to do well at the combine, but at +200 odds, there’s a 33.3% implied probability that he’ll run slower than 4.38 seconds. (I’m assuming that 4.38 is a push.)
I appreciate the enthusiasm for Campbell, but it just seems absurd that even a respected prospect with good athleticism would be widely expected to run faster than 4.38 seconds at 200-plus pounds.
I know that last summer he reportedly ran a 4.26-second 40.
He’s a fast dude.
But that was a hand-timed 40. Electronically, that would be a 4.31. And that time wasn’t taken by a neutral scout. That time could easily be shaded his direction by a couple hundredths of a second.
And perhaps that run wasn’t a one-off effort. Maybe it was just the best, cherry-picked attempt out of several 40s.
And there’s a real difference between running the 40 under optimal circumstances during the summer — rested, on your home field and among supportive teammates and coaches — than running it at the combine — tired from interviews and other drills, in a nerve-inducing new environment and surrounded by peers competing against you.
I openly acknowledge that this could look like a horribly bad bet in hindsight, and I wouldn’t bet the over any lower than +200.
But there’s a reason we typically don’t see medium-sized guys run blazing 40s at the combine: It’s hard to do.
The Pick: Over 4.38 Seconds (+200)
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