Pros And Joes On Opposite Sides of Patriots-Bills Spread

Pros And Joes On Opposite Sides of Patriots-Bills Spread article feature image
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USA Today Sports. Pictured: New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady

  • The New England Patriots (-13.5) travel to New Era Field to take on the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN).
  • Using The Action Network's betting tools, we analyze how sharp and recreational bettors are approaching this game.

Week 8 has been a bloodbath for sharps, contrarians and sportsbooks, as teams getting a majority of spread bets (51% or more) have gone 9-3 (75%) against the spread (ATS), winning +5.88 units.

The public will look to keep the good times rolling tonight, while wiseguys hope to bounce back and mitigate their losses.

Using the betting tools available at The Action Network and Sports Insights, we’ve identified heavy sharp action on tonight’s Monday Night Football showdown between the New England Patriots (5-2) and Buffalo Bills (2-5), with wiseguys taking a clear side on the spread.

Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.

Full Sports Betting Glossary

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

  • Sharp angle: Bills (moved from +14.5/+14 to +13.5)
  • Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN

Death, taxes and the New England Patriots covering the spread. Since 2003, the Pats have gone 148-91 ATS (61.9%), producing +53.03 units and an absurd 21.5% return on investment (ROI), according to Bet Labs.

Tonight, the Patriots travel to New Era Field to take on Derek Anderson and the struggling Bills.

The public expects a guaranteed blowout, but wiseguys are banking on Bills Mafia to put up a fight at home and keep it in within two touchdowns.

New England opened as a 13-point road favorite. Currently 70% of spread bets are laying the big points with Belichick and Brady. This heavy public support pushed the Pats up to -14 or -14.5.

Once the key number of +14 (and the +14.5 hook) was available, that’s when Goodfellas pounced on the home dog.

According to Sports Insights’ Bet Signals, eight separate steam and reverse line moves have come in on Buffalo at either +14.5 or +14.

The most notable signals came on Monday morning considering limits are higher on game day than they are earlier in the week.

The overload of sharp action has dropped Buffalo down to +13.5. It’s important to note that all moves came at Bills +14 or more.

Reading between the lines, sharps are saying you have to get Buffalo at +14 or more for optimal line value.

An added bonus for wiseguys backing the Bills: Jerome “Homer” Boger is the head official tonight. Since 2005, home teams have gone 86-65 ATS (57%, +18.18 units) when Boger is the lead ref.