Patriots-Chiefs Betting Odds: Latest AFC Championship Game Spread, Over/Under

Jan 17, 2019 6:05 AM EST
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USA Today Sports. Pictured: Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes

Betting Odds: New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs

  • Odds: Chiefs -3
  • Over/Under: 55.5
  • Time: 6:40 p.m. ET on Sunday, Jan. 20
  • TV: CBS

>> All odds as of Sunday afternoon. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets


The Kansas City Chiefs are up to 3-point favorites against the New England Patriots for Sunday’s AFC Conference Championship Game after opening at -2.5 with Patrick Mahomes and Co. drawing a slight majority of spread bets and money wagered (see live data here).

The over/under has also been on the move throughout the week with weather forecasts for Kansas City fluctuating.

This will be the first conference championship game the Chiefs will ever host. They beat the Colts, 31-13, for their first home playoff win since January 1994 this past Saturday.

Action Network Projections: Patriots-Chiefs

Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, made the following power ratings for this game on Sunday. For the most up-to-date projections, download The Action Network app.

  • Projected Spread: Chiefs -3.6
  • Projected Over/Under: 57.5

Latest News & Analysis

Betting Trends to Know

Well, this is a change: For the first time since 2016, the AFC Championship Game will not be in Foxborough. Amazingly enough, it will also be the first time since 2010 that it’s not played in either New England or in Denver.

Welcome to the club Kansas City.

  • Tom Brady is 6-2 straight-up against Andy Reid-coached teams, but only 3-5 against the spread, failing to cover by an average of 4.7 points per game. Brady is just 1-3 ATS since Reid took over in Kansas City, failing to cover by 13.3 points per game.
  • Brady has only three touchdowns and six interceptions in three career starts at Arrowhead Stadium. He’s played in 42 different NFL stadiums over his career, and this is one of only two that he has a worse than a 1.0 touchdown-to-interception ratio at. (The other is Bank of America Stadium in Carolina.)
  • Only eight teams over the past decade have won their Divisional Round game by 14 or more points and played at home in the conference championship. All eight won straight up (and went 4-4 against the spread).

How the Patriots Reached the Conference Championship

Another season, another trip to the AFC Championship for Tom Brady and the Patriots.

The Patriots are making their 8th consecutive trip to the AFC Championship game. Sunday will feel a little different for Brady, since it will be his first start as an underdog in 67 games dating back to 2015.

How the Chiefs Reached the Conference Championship

The Chiefs are hosting their first conference championship in franchise history largely due to the play of their MVP-caliber quarterback, Patrick Mahomes.

The Chiefs have not left Kansas City since their Week 16 loss in Seattle. The last eight teams to play at least three consecutive home games entering and including the conference championship have won the game straight up, going 6-2 ATS dating back to the 2014 NFC Championship Game.

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