Marky’s Malarkey: Betting on the Patriots-Chiefs Weather (Literally)

Jan 17, 2019 05:32 PM EST
Credit:

Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports.

  • The initial forecast for the Patriots-Chiefs game has shifted, with temperatures not nearly as cold as they were once thought to be.
  • Odds have been posted on the temperature at kickoff, which Marky has analyzed using his weather tools.

Remember that time we (and everyone else in the world) said it was going to be very, very cold for the Patriots-Chiefs game? So cold that the word Arctic was frequently being brought up? Yeah, well that’s not going to happen any more.

The forecasts hinting at temperatures below zero are all gone. If you’re actually planning on attending the game, do not plan on wearing more than two layers. You may sweat out and dehydrate to death. That’s right, folks, the forecast calls for scorching hot temperatures now and the over/under is back on it’s way up.

If you still think it’s going to be cold, you can bet on it. And I’m not talking about the spread or over/under.

The over/under for the kick-off temperature has been set at 19.5 degrees Farenheit. That’s -6.94 degrees Celsius for all you non-Americans and 266.21 degrees Kelvin for all you scientists.

I first noticed these odds in a tweet by Sean Koerner. At the time, the over had +100 juice and the under was at -140. Since then, it’s moved to -120 a side. Sharps and meteorologists on the over.

You missed some juice, but still bet the over.

The Arctic blast or whatever you want to call it still exists — it’s just going to be hundreds of miles north of Kansas City.

As a result, the temperatures will just be pretty standard for winter. Our weather page calls for a kickoff temp of 28 degrees, while weather.com and weather.gov both have high temps in the mid-upper 20s.

I also look at two mid-range weather models whenever I write about the weather: the Global forecast system model (GFS) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting model — ECMWF or Euro Model to the layperson. (I got a Weather for Dummies book for Christmas so you better believe I’m the real deal.)

With these models, I generally look at wind speeds and their direction, as well as wind gusts. However, I can look at temperatures, too.

The Euro Model is the only thing I’ve looked at that thinks this bet will be a sweat, setting the temp at 18 degrees at 6 p.m. local time — 20 minutes after kickoff. The GFS Model has it at 29 degrees.

For my last source, I went local. Taking native Kansas Citian Scott Miller’s advice, I checked out what the folks at KCTV-5 had to say. They have a high temp of 24 for the day and a low of 19. It’s still a little far out to get into the specifics, but the low would most likely occur after 5:40 p.m.

This is the second time in my career I’ve seen a temperature over/under. I’m 1-0 so far. Pray for 20+ degrees.

How would you rate this article?
Follow Mark Gallant on Twitter
@marky_money

Top Stories