Koerner’s Patriots-Rams Projections: Early Power Ratings for Super Bowl 53
Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Aaron Donald, Michael Brockers and Ndamukong Suh.
Super Bowl 53: Action Network Projections
- Spread: Rams -0.2
- Over/Under: 57.5
The Patriots-Rams matchup in Super Bowl 53 opened with a spread of pick’em, which is almost exactly how our Power Ratings have it pegged (Rams -0.2).
Since the Patriots are only minutes removed from a thrilled overtime win, it was no surprise to see the early action make them favorites pretty quickly.
The public has a tainted view of the Rams’ win over the Saints after poor officiating — specifically the controversial no call on Nickell Robey-Coleman near the goal line — aided their victory.
I’m guessing the early action will push this out to Patriots -1.5 to -2, but we may see it boomerang back the Rams’ way as this is a true pick’em game.
Tom Brady was fortunate to overcome a poor decision in the first half, which resulted in an interception in the end zone.
Still, he was very comfortable in the pocket on Sunday, as the Chiefs failed to sack him. Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh should be able to cause enough havoc to attempt to throw Brady off his game.
Bettors are going to feel more comfortable backing the GOAT in this game, but I’m certain we will see sharps keep the line in check by pumping the Rams anytime the line drifts past +2.
The over/under is likely where we can find the most value.
We have it at 57.5, which is just below the opener of 59. The Super Bowl will draw a ton of public money on the over, so it’s typically better to wait as long as possible to lock in the under.
If I had to guess, this line may flirt with 59.5 at times, but I doubt sharps will let it get to 60.
Look for both teams to attempt a run-heavy attack — Todd Gurley/C.J. Anderson for the Rams and Sony Michel/Rex Burkhead for the Patriots — to control the game early.