Complete Betting History of Patriots Super Bowls in Brady-Belichick Era

Complete Betting History of Patriots Super Bowls in Brady-Belichick Era article feature image

Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tom Brady and Bill Belichick

  • Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are heading to their ninth Super Bowl in the 18 years that Brady has been the starting quarterback for the New England Patriots.
  • While they're 5-3 in their previous eight attempts, they've covered the point spread in just three of those eight tries.
  • Using The Action Network's tools, we detail the betting history of the New England Patriots in the Brady-Belichick era.

They’re baaaaaack.

For the third straight season — and fourth in five years — the Patriots are in the Super Bowl. Following their 37-31 win in Kansas City, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will have a shot at their sixth Lombardi Trophy against the Rams on Super Sunday.

It’ll be their ninth Super Bowl try in the 18 years Brady has been at the helm, meaning they’re now just as likely as a coin is to land on heads to make the big game.

And while there’s never been a better coach-quarterback tandem when it comes to winning the Super Bowl, Patriots bettors (on the point spread) in past Super Bowls haven’t fared so well.

While Bill and Tom have gone 5-3 straight up in their eight tries so far, two of those wins haven’t been quite big enough for bettors to profit. Belichick and Brady are actually just 3-5 against the spread (ATS) in Super Bowls.

And while recent history might lead you to believe that Patriots Super Bowls are high scoring (the past three have all gone over the total), over/unders are actually an even 4-4 over the eight-game sample.

Here’s a brief history of every Patriots Super Bowl appearance in the Brady-Belichick era.

Super Bowl LII (2017-18 season)

  • Opponent: Eagles
  • Line: Patriots -4.5, O/U 48.5
  • Result: Lost, 41-33 (did not cover, over)

New England opened as a 6-point favorite in last year’s Super Bowl, and despite close to 50-50 betting percentages, the Pats fell to -4.5 before kickoff.

That movement obviously ended up being predictive of the actual outcome, as even Brady’s 505 yards and three touchdowns weren’t enough to overcome Philly. The Patriots did, however, help the game cruise past the 48.5-point over/under.

Super Bowl LI (2016-17 season)

  • Opponent: Falcons
  • Line: Patriots -3, O/U 57
  • Result: Won, 34-28 (covered, over)

For under bettors, Falcons bettors and most of all, Falcons fans, this Super Bowl was one to forget.

Down, 28-3, the Patriots stormed back with 25 points in just over 17 minutes to send the game to overtime, ensuring that it would surpass 57 total points with the inevitable overtime score. Of course, that score ended up being a Patriots touchdown, killing any chance at a push for Falcons backers.

Super Bowl XLIX (2014-15 season)

  • Opponent: Seahawks
  • Line: Patriots -1, O/U 47
  • Result: Won, 28-24 (covered, over)

Just as it did in last year’s Super Bowl, the market movement proved indicative of the outcome in 2015. The Pats moved from a pick’em to -1 on Super Bowl Sunday, and scored 14 fourth-quarter points to steal a victory from the Seahawks.

There may or may not have also been a poor coaching decision that affected the outcome.

Super Bowl XLII (2011-12 season)

  • Opponent: Giants
  • Line: Patriots -3, O/U 53
  • Result: Lost, 21-17 (did not cover, under)

Of the two Pats-Giants Super Bowls, consider this the “Mario Manningham one.” Down, 17-15, with just over three minutes to go, Eli Manning completed an incredible pass to Manningham on the left sideline, leading to an eventual game-winning score.

Once again, the line movement pointed toward the end result, as New England fell from its opening number of -3.5 to -3.

Super Bowl XLVI (2007-08 season)

  • Opponent: Giants
  • Line: Patriots -12.5, O/U 54.5
  • Result: Lost, 17-14 (did not cover, under)

Four years prior to Manningham there was David Tyree. And as we all remember, this one was far more ridiculous.

The Giants, down 14-10, were facing third down and five yards to go with just over one minute remaining. Eli pulled some magic to escape the pocket, Tyree stuck the ball to his helmet, yada yada yada …

Interestingly, the line movement once again led to a winning bet. The Giants fell from +14 to +12.5 leading up to the game, and by winning outright, they covered with ease.

Super Bowl XXXIX (2004-05 season)

  • Opponent: Eagles
  • Line: Patriots -7, O/U 47
  • Result: Won, 24-21 (did not cover, under)

Whether Donovan McNabb actually puked in the fourth quarter, we may never know. We do know, however, that his comeback attempt came up short, concluding with a Rodney Harrison interception with 17 seconds left.

Unlike the previous games mentioned, this one actually wasn’t predicted by line movement. The Pats opened -6 and were bet up to full-touchdown favorites.

Super Bowl XXXVIII (2003-04 season)

  • Opponent: Panthers
  • Line: Patriots -7, O/U 37.5
  • Result: Won, 32-29 (did not cover, over)

Of the eight Brady-Belichick Super Bowls, I’d argue this one in particular slips way too far under the radar from an entertainment perspective.

Two stout defenses gave oddsmakers reason to set the lowest total of the past 15 years, and under bettors were very much in play through three quarters.

The Patriots led, 14-10, after 45 minutes, but a 37-point back-and-forth final quarter, capped off by an Adam Vinatieri game-winning field goal, gave Brady and Belichick their second Super Bowl championship.

New England did not, however, cover its 7-point spread.

Super Bowl XXXVI (2001-02 season)

  • Opponent: Rams
  • Line: Patriots +14, O/U 52.5
  • Result: Won, 20-17 (covered, under)

As the third-largest underdogs in Super Bowl history, the Patriots joined Joe Namath’s Jets as the only teams to win outright as underdogs of two touchdowns or more.

New England did blow a 14-point fourth-quarter lead, but getting the ball back with 1:21 remaining, Tom Brady led the Pats down the field with no timeouts, setting up another game-winning kick from Vinatieri.

Even with the 17-point fourth quarter, the game didn’t come close to its closing total of 52.5.

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