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Eagles-Bears Betting Preview: Will Chicago Put an End to Foles’ Playoff Magic?

Jan 06, 2019 4:02 PM EST
Credit:

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Khalil Mack and Nick Foles

NFL Playoffs Betting Odds: Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

  • Spread: Bears -6.5
  • Over/Under: 41
  • Time: Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: NBC

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market

Though there was some market disagreement as to where this line should open, things have been quite stable since. Chicago has sat at -6/-6.5 at most books for the majority of the week and is the only favorite to receive the majority of spread bets (54%) at the time of writing (see live betting data here).

There was some early movement toward Philly, but that didn’t last for long. There hasn’t, however, been any push from sharp bettors to drive the Bears to -7.

Over/under bets and dollars are both essentially split down the middle. But the total has dropped a half point at most books down to 41, which may have something to do with the forecast. — Mark Gallant

Weather report

Is that Bear weather I see in the forecast? It’s looking like it very well may be.

Right now, the temperature is expected to be in the mid-30s with wind speeds starting around 13 mph and reaching 16 mph by the end of the game. Unfortunately, no rain or snow appears to be in store. — Mark Gallant

Trends to know

Since 2003, teams that failed to make the playoffs in the previous season (Chicago) that are playing a team that did make the playoffs the year before (Philadelphia) have gone 8-22-1 against the spread overall.

When that team is listed as the favorite, it is just 2-7 ATS, per our Bet Labs data. — Evan Abrams

Tony Corrente is the head official for the Bears-Eagles Wild Card game on Sunday. Since 2010, home teams are 7-1 straight up in Corrente-officiated games. — Evan Abrams

Chicago won five games a season ago before going from worst to first in the NFC North. Since 2003, teams that won five or fewer games the season prior have gone 7-26 ATS in the playoffs. — John Ewing

Chicago went 12-4 this season, while Philadelphia managed a 9-7 record. Since 2003, the team with the better record has gone 61-84-3 (42%) ATS in the playoffs — John Ewing

Biggest Mismatches

Mismatch Bears can exploit: Bears WRs vs. Eagles CBs

Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller all practiced in full on Wednesday, so the Bears are set up wonderfully against the Eagles’ injury-riddled secondary, which has allowed a league-high 90.2 yards to opposing No. 1 wide receivers this season.

The Eagles don’t make a habit of moving their cornerbacks, so we can safely identify our probable matchups on the outside.

Spoiler: They’re all good for the Bears.

  • Robinson vs. Avonte Maddox: The Eagles’ fourth-round rookie is considered Pro Football Focus’ No. 60 overall safety this season.
  • Gabriel vs. Rasul Douglas: The Bears’ field-stretcher (4.4-second 40-yard dash) boasts a massive speed advantage over Douglas (4.59).
  • Miller vs. Cre’Von LeBlanc: The Eagles’ slot corner joined the team in Week 10 and has allowed 23-of-35 targets (66%) thrown into his coverage to be caught for 216 yards and a touchdown — good for a solid 92.1 quarterback rating.
Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Chicago Bears wide receiver Taylor Gabriel (18) and wide receiver Allen Robinson (12)

Mitchell Trubisky makes a habit of not zeroing in on a single receiver, but this might be the perfect strategy against an Eagles secondary that seemingly doesn’t have much of a hope of covering anybody. — Ian Hartitz

Mismatch Eagles can exploit: Eagles pass rush vs. Bears offensive line

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