Eagles-Rams SNF Betting Preview: Can You Trust Nick Foles in LA?
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Nick Foles, Aaron Donald
Betting odds: Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams
- Spread: Rams -13
- Over/Under: 52
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- TV channel: NBC
>> All odds as of Sunday afternoon. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets
Betting market: The Rams opened at -9.5 and had been bet up to -9 before the Carson Wentz (back) injury. After the game went off the board, the line reopened at -11 with Nick Foles set to start.
There was a bit of buyback on the Eagles once it reopened, with a reverse line move dropping the line to 10.5, initially suggesting sharp bettors didn’t believe there was a two-point difference between Wentz and Foles. But the line has since been bet all the way up to 13 behind 56% of the bets (see live odds here). — Mark Gallant
Trends to know: The Rams are 11-2 straight-up but 5-7-1 against the spread.
Since 2003, teams that have won 80% or more their games but have a losing ATS record (like Los Angeles) have gone 31-40-2 ATS in their next game, including 1-4 ATS in December or later. — John Ewing
The Rams are averaging 32.7 points per game, which is third-most in the NFL behind only the Chiefs and Saints. But last week in Chicago, Los Angeles mustered only six points in a loss.
Since 2003, 10 teams have played a game in December or later that are averaging at least 30 points per game and have scored just 14 or fewer points in their previous game.
Those teams are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in their next game, covering by 5.2 points while averaging 31.7 points. — Evan Abrams
Did you know? Over the past 35 years, 11 reigning Super Bowl champions have been listed as a touchdown underdog the following season. Those teams are 2-8 SU, but are actually 6-4 ATS due to some inflated spreads.
Over that span, no reining Super Bowl champion has been listed as an underdog multiple times in the season after winning it all … before the 2018 Eagles. This is the second time they’ve been listed as underdogs of a touchdown or more this season. — Abrams
Biggest mismatch and DFS edge: Rams’ passing offense vs. Eagles’ secondary
Since Ronald Darby (ACL) went on IR, the Eagles are allowing 318.75 passing yards per game (30th), 8.67 yards per attempt (28th) and a 73.47% completion rate (31st).
They’re also allowing a league-high 137.25 receiving yards per game on passes thrown 15-plus yards downfield, along with a 90.5% deserved catch rate on such passes in that timeframe, per Sports Info Solutions.
The Rams offense will look to rebound after its abysmal showing against the Bears. Luckily for them, Jared Goff has averaged 9.04 yards per attempt, 2.15 passing touchdowns and 319.91 passing yards per game at home while under Sean McVay.
Goff and all his pass catchers are in play against the Eagles.
Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks are priced within $100 and project within one point of each other on DraftKings and FanDuel. Stacking both with Goff in tournaments for the Thursday-Monday slate is an intriguing contrarian move after their whole offense disappointed last week.
Goff boasts a positive correlation of 0.65 with Cooks and 0.13 with Woods. — Justin Bailey
Which team is healthier? Rams
Rams center John Sullivan (concussion) managed to get in a full practice on Wednesday and is expected to suit up Sunday night.
Meanwhile, the Eagles’ injury-riddled defense could be without defensive end Michael Bennett (foot), defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan (back), linebacker Jordan Hicks (calf) as well as cornerbacks Sidney Jones (hamstring) and Avonte Maddox (leg).
Running backs Darren Sproles and Josh Adams could see heightened roles with Corey Clement (knee, IR) done for the season, but the floor of the entire offense is lowered with Foles starting in place of Wentz.
Bet to watch: Eagles +13
Does Foles starting help this bet? Maybe, maybe not. I don’t know. He did win Super Bowl MVP, so he’s not exactly your standard backup.
Why I like the Eagles doesn’t have to do with their quarterback, though. It has everything to do with the Rams.
The Rams’ record is better than what it should be if you are a believer in point differential. Their winning percentage is .846, but their Pythagorean expected winning percentage is below .700.
Historically, in the final three weeks of the season, it’s been a strong bet to fade teams whose Pythagorean winning percentage is at least 12.5% worse than their actual winning percentage.
Those teams have covered less than 40% of the time in these spots, but when they’re favorites of at least a touchdown, they’ve covered less than 30% of the time. — Gallant
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.