Eagles-Saints Betting Preview: Does Philly Have Any Playoff Magic Left?

Jan 13, 2019 11:30 PM EST
Credit:

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Nick Foles, Drew Brees

Betting odds: Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints

  • Spread: Saints -8
  • Over/Under: 51
  • Time: Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting Market

The Saints were anywhere between 7.5- and 10-point favorites when this line opened. It settled in at -7.5 for a time, but has since gone up to -8.

Like every other dog this weekend, the Eagles are trendy, getting 55% of bets and 69% of dollars at the time of writing (see live data here). If some real sharp players had hit them, they would’ve moved to +7, but that hasn’t happened yet.

The over/under initially fell from 51.5 to 50.5 despite the fact that the over was getting two-thirds of the total bets — that’s what we call a reverse line move, folks.

But it’s since moved back up to 51.5 thanks to some buyback.Mark Gallant

Trends to Know

Nick Foles is 4-0 straight up and against the spread in the playoffs since 2017, but history suggests he could regress.

Backup quarterbacks — defined as starting five or fewer regular-season games — not named Foles have gone 11-21 SU and 13-17-2 ATS in the postseason since 1990. — John Ewing

After the Eagles’ wild-card win over the Bears, Foles has won six straight starts as an underdog, becoming the sixth quarterback since 2003 to accomplish that feat.

Matt Ryan was the last to do so in 2015-16, but Eli Manning is the best comparison to Foles. Manning’s two streaks of six or more games won as a dog crossed through his Super Bowl wins in 2008 (eight) and 2012 (six). Evan Abrams

Underdogs are 14-1 ATS in the playoffs since the 2017 season, but bettors shouldn’t count on the dogs to keep barking — pooches were 24-28-3 ATS over the previous five playoffs. Ewing

Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Nick Foles, Doug Pederson

Doug Pederson is 0-3 SU and ATS on the road when facing an opponent the Eagles previously lost to by 20 or more points in the teams’ most recent meeting, failing to cover by 10 points per game. Abrams

If this game comes down to the wire, Drew Brees has given fans and bettors more confidence than ever: His seven game-winning drives this season are his most in a single season. Abrams

The Saints finished the regular season 13-3 SU and 10-6 ATS, making them the NFL’s second-most profitable team ATS, per our Bet Labs data. Unfortunately for their backers, they limped to the playoffs, failing to cover in their final three games.

Teams that enter the playoffs on at least a three-game ATS losing streak are actually 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS over the past decade, covering by an average of 11.2 points per game. Abrams

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