Steelers-Browns Betting Preview: How to Bet This Over/Under

Steelers-Browns Betting Preview: How to Bet This Over/Under article feature image
Credit:

Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cleveland Browns quarterback Tyrod Taylor

Betting odds: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

  • Spread: Steelers -4.5
  • Over/Under: 44
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.


Betting market: Pittsburgh was getting about 68% of spread bets earlier in the week, but that has since dropped to 64% at the time of writing with all of the Le’Veon Bell drama (see live data here).

The line hit 3.5 at some books, but not for long, as the market still believes a Bell-less Steelers team should be at least a 4-point favorite vs. the Browns. — Mark Gallant

Weather report: The forecast has gotten better over the past couple of days if you’re attending the game, but a bit worse if you’re taking the under.

Expected wind speeds have dropped from nearly 20 mph to about 15 mph, which is still high, but not as outlandish. With rain also in the picture, we’ve seen the total drop from 46.5 to 44 over the past week. — Mark Gallant


DFS edge: With multiple viable paths to saving salary this week, James Conner owns a top-five Projected Plus/Minus based on FantasyLabs’ projections powered by Sean Koerner.

Similarly priced running backs who are playing in games with comparable spreads and Projected Plus/Minuses have historically smashed value on DraftKings with a +2.54 Plus/Minus and 54.5% Consistency Rating (per FantasyLabs’ Trends tool). — Joe Holka

Injury watch: The Browns defense is a bit banged up, with cornerback E.J. Gaines (knee) and defensive tackle Trevon Coley (ankle) shaping up as game-time decisions.

The good news is wide receiver Josh Gordon (hamstring) said he’s 100% despite practicing in a limited fashion this week. Head coach Hue Jackson has confirmed Gordon will still be on a snap count Sunday.

The Steelers offense could be without starting tight end Vance McDonald (ankle), and more importantly, their workhorse Bell (holdout, doubtful). Their respective absences would lead to enhanced roles for Jesse James and Conner. — Ian Hartitz

Did you know? Last year, the Steelers and Browns played each other in Week 1 after Bell’s preseason contract-negotiation drama. He played but wasn’t effective (10 carries for 32 yards) and the Steelers barely pulled out a 21-18 win (as 10-point favorites).

That win marked the Browns’ 13th straight season-opening loss. They have only one Week 1 win since 1999 (2004 vs. Ravens when Jeff Garcia was under center).

Big Ben, who is 21-2 against Cleveland in his career, has the most wins of any quarterback at FirstEnergy Stadium (including Browns’ signal-callers) since 1999. — Stuckey

Bet to watch: Oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring game. Don’t be afraid to bet the under. Since 2003, when the average wind speed is 10 mph or stronger and the over/under is 50 or fewer points, the under has gone 403-324-8 (55%). — John Ewing

 


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.