Freedman’s Favorite Kicker Prop Bet (Jan. 20): How Many Field Goals Will Greg Zuerlein Make?
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein
- In 2019, Matthew Freedman is writing a new series featuring one of his favorite prop bets for each day.
- On Sunday, he looks at the Saints-Rams game (3:05 p.m. ET, Fox) and the field goal prop for Los Angeles kicker Greg Zuerlein.
Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine.
For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
15-9-2, +14.01 Units
- Golf: 2-1-0, +1.30 Units
- NFL: 3-4-0, +6.35 Units
- NBA: 5-2-0, +2.56 Units
- NHL: 5-1-2, +4.80 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units
Freedman’s Favorite Kicker Prop Bet for Sunday, Jan. 20: Rams Field Goals Over/Under 1.5
- Over 1.5: -165
- Under 1.5: +135
This is a bonus pick for today, in addition to Mark Ingram’s rushing yardage total.
To find the best bets in the props market, use our Player Props Tool. Since Week 1, the props with a bet quality of 10 have gone 235-119-12, good for a 64% win rate.
Conference Championship weekend kicks off with the Saints-Rams game (3:05 p.m. ET, FOX), and Los Angeles kicker Greg Zuerlein is someone to watch.
Although this prop isn’t technically exclusive to just Zuerlein, he’s the guy who will be attempting field goals for the Rams, barring a mid-game injury.
I typically don’t like to pay lots of juice, but I like Greg the Leg indoors in a game with a high over/under.
Under head coach Sean McVay, the Rams have attempted an NFL-high 84 field goals over the past two years, and Zuerlein has connected on an elite 91.5% of his field-goal attempts in that time.
He’s been money from all distances.
- 0-19 yards: 1 for 1
- 20-29 yards: 17 for 17
- 30-39 yards: 21 for 22
- 40-49 yards: 16 for 18
- 50+: 10 for 13
Including last week, when he was 3-of-4 kicking, Zuerlein has played 26 games over the past two years. In just four of them has he failed to kick two-plus field goals. And in only two of them has he not gotten at least two attempts.
In just one of his 12 games this season has Legatron not kicked more than one field goal. In every game this year he’s had at least two attempts.
Unless the Rams get down by two-plus touchdowns, Zuerlein has a great chance of kicking multiple field goals.
This line is available at Bovada. At 1.5, I’d bet it to -200. At -165, I’d bet it to 2.0.
The Pick: Over 1.5 (-165)