49ers-Packers MNF Betting Preview: Should You Trust Aaron Rodgers as a Big Favorite?

49ers-Packers MNF Betting Preview: Should You Trust Aaron Rodgers as a Big Favorite? article feature image

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers, C.J. Beathard

Betting odds: San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers

  • Spread: Packers -8.5
  • Over/Under: 46
  • Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: ESPN

>> All odds as of 6 p.m. ET on Sunday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting market: Despite their troubles in Detroit, and this season in general, the Packers are currently the most popular spread bet of the week and one of only three teams with at least 70% of bets as Sunday evening (see live data here). Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Aaron Rodgers is coming off a divisional loss to the Lions. He’s 10-1 straight-up and 8-3 against the spread the week after a divisional loss, winning by 12.9 points per game. Evan Abrams

Rodgers has played in 41 regular-season prime-time games as the Packers starter, 22 of which have been against NFC North opponents (15-7 SU and ATS), while 19 have been against teams outside the division (10-9 SU and 8-10-1 ATS).

This will be Rodgers’ second start in prime time as a favorite with a spread of more than a touchdown against a non-divisional opponent. The first was in 2014, when the Packers beat the Falcons 43-37 as 13.5-point favorites. Abrams

Did you know? Since Rodgers’ first start for the Packers in 2008, he is 16-6-1 ATS (+9.2 units) in prime time at Lambeau Field, making him the second-most profitable quarterback in that spot behind only Drew Brees in prime time at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

When Rodgers plays at home in prime time when Green Bay is .500 or worse, he is 3-0 SU and ATS, covering the spread by 11 points per game. The Packers enter the game 2-2-1 on the season. Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Packers defensive line vs. 49ers offensive line

The Packers boast a distinct advantage at wide receiver, regardless of whether Randall Cobb (hamstring) and / or Geronimo Allison (concussion) ultimately suit up. But the line of scrimmage could very well be where Green Bay wins this game.

The 49ers’ putrid offensive line has allowed the fifth-highest pressure rate per dropback this season, while the Packers have one of only six defenses to pressure the quarterback on more than 50% of dropbacks. Ian Hartitz

Which team is healthier? Packers

Cobb and Allison got in a limited practice to start the week and appear to be trending toward suiting up on Monday night. The same goes for cornerback Jaire Alexander (groin).

Meanwhile, the 49ers are one of the league’s most-banged up teams. Running back Matt Breida (shoulder/ankle) is expected to join receiver Dante Pettis (knee) on the bench, and there’s no guarantee wide receiver Pierre Garcon (shoulder/knee), wide receiver Trent Taylor (back) or tight end George Kittle (knee) will play.

Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

The good news for San Francisco is that wide receiver Marquise Goodwin (quad) returned to a full practice and is expected to play.

Note: Info as of Sunday. See our Injury Dashboard for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Hartitz

DFS edge: The Packers were without Cobb and Allison last week against the Lions, giving Davante Adams (12), Jimmy Graham (11) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (10) double-digit targets. Now they have a much cushier spot at home against a 49ers defense that ranks 23rd in Football Outsiders’ pass DVOA this season.

Rodgers has proven he can grant any receiver fantasy relevance any given week, but Adams deserves some credit for regularly working as one of the league’s very best receivers for the better part of the last 2 1/2 seasons. He is second behind only Antonio Brown with 26 receiving touchdowns since 2016, including four already this season. Hartitz

Bet to watch: Packers -8.5

The Bears lost in Miami. The Vikings beat the Cardinals at home. The Lions are on a bye week. My money will be on the Packers to come out fast, efficient and with urgency after a loss last week.

Rodgers has been much more profitable against the spread in the first half at home (+9.1 units) than he has been on the road (-9.2 units) over his career.

But with the first-half line of -6.5 compared to the full game spread of -8.5, the value is in laying the points over the course of the full game.

The Packers pressure quarterbacks a ton — they’re third in the league in pressure — while the 49ers’ offensive line ranked 26th in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Sack Rate entering Sunday.

Heading into Week 6, the 49ers allowed only six receptions of 25 or more yards, which tied for the fewest in the NFL with the Patriots. But the 49ers have allowed 12 passing touchdowns, tied for third-most in the league.

The Packers are healthier, hungrier and a better team. Rodgers should pick San Francisco apart in the short and medium game and Green Bay will pull away late. Abrams

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.