Raiders-49ers TNF Betting Preview: Which One-Win Team Provides Value?

Raiders-49ers TNF Betting Preview: Which One-Win Team Provides Value? article feature image

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Kyle Shanahan, Jon Gruden

Betting odds: Oakland Raiders at San Francisco 49ers

  • Spread: 49ers -2.5
  • Over/Under: 45.5
  • Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX/NFL Network/Amazon Prime

>> All odds as of Wednesday evening. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting market: At the time of writing, 66% of tickets and 74% of dollars wagered on the spread are on the Raiders, which isn’t all that surprising considering the reports of C.J. Beathard’s injured wrist. The line remains where it opened at 49ers -3, but that will likely move if Beathard can’t go (see live betting data here). — PJ Walsh

Trends and Stats to know: The 49ers could start Nick Mullens at quarterback on Thursday night. Mullens, who has never taken an NFL regular-season snap, has gone 31 of 43 for 396 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions in the preseason. — John Ewing

The 49ers are 1-2 SU and 0-3 against the spread as favorites in 2018. San Fran’s struggles as a favorite shouldn’t be a surprise as the Niners are 1-12 ATS as favorites since 2015.  — Evan Abrams

The 49ers (1-7) and Raiders (1-6) are among the favorites to land the No. 1 pick in the 2019 NFL draft. The loser of this matchup will have the inside track for the top pick. Since 2003, when two teams that have won 30% or fewer of their games meet in Week 9 or later of the season, the favorite has gone 39-25 straight up. — John Ewing

Sometimes these Thursday Night Football games leave a lot to be desired both as a fan and as a bettor, but this game is still an outlier.

This is just the third time since 2003 that two teams with winning percentages of 20% or lower meet in prime time in November or later. The last time was Week 16 in 2014 when the 2-12 Titans lost, 21-13, to the 2-12 Jaguars. The Jags covered as four-point favorites. — Evan Abrams

Our projected line: 49ers -2.5.

According to our proprietary power ratings, this number is spot on.

Biggest mismatch: George Kittle vs. Raiders safeties

The Raiders’ 31st-ranked secondary in overall DVOA doesn’t have many redeeming qualities, but it has at least managed to rank among the league’s top six defenses in DVOA vs. No. 1 and No. 2 wide receivers.

Oakland’s league-worst defense in DVOA vs. tight ends has allowed an average of 60.8 yards per game to opposing tight end groups.

Overall, none of the Raiders safeties ranks among PFF’s top-30 defensive backs this season. Only O.J. Howard (2.52) has averaged more yards per route run than Kittle (2.44) this season among 37 qualified tight ends. — Ian Hartitz

Which team is healthier? Oakland Raiders

The only Raiders seemingly at risk of missing Thursday night’s matchup are left guard Kelechi Osemele (knee) and right tackle T.J. Clemmings (knee).

Meanwhile, Beathard (right wrist), stud linebacker Reuben Foster (knee) and safety Jaquiski Tartt (shoulder) did not practice on Monday or Tuesday for the 49ers. Additional concerns for San Francisco include cornerback Richard Sherman (calf, heel) along with running backs Matt Breida (ankle) and Raheem Mostert (ankle). — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: The 49ers have featured track star Kittle as their featured pass-game weapon all season. Overall, Kittle leads San Francisco with 57 targets, and he joins Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz as the league’s only tight ends with a target share above 20%.

This week’s matchup against the Raiders’ league-worst secondary in pass DVOA vs. tight ends is especially appetizing. Kittle is one of just four tight ends in Week 9 with a projected ceiling of at least 20 DraftKings points in our Pro Models. — Ian Hartitz

Bet to watch: Raiders +2.5

I’d love to do a deep analytical dive as to why I took Oakland +3 in this game, but it’s actually quite simple. As of Tuesday, Beathard reportedly could not yet grip a football properly. If he does tough it out, he’ll be severely limited.

The Action Network’s NFL power ratings also made this line 49ers -2.5 before Beathard’s injury news broke. Considering Mullens has yet to throw a single pass in a regular-season game, our ratings point to value with the Raiders as well. — PJ Walsh

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

How would you rate this article?