Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson.
- The Seahawks opened as 10-point dogs vs. the Rams (4:25 p.m. ET).
- The spread remained in the 9.5/10 area all week, but Seattle was steamed on Sunday morning and promptly moved to +8.5/8.
- A couple hours later, buyback came in on the Rams and pushed their line back up toward -10, meaning Russell Wilson will likely face the largest spread of his career on Sunday.
Early in the week, I mentioned that Russell Wilson would be an underdog of historic proportions this week against the Rams.
He’s never been more than a 7.5-point dog in his career, but when he does get points, he’s been excellent against the spread.
The Seahawks opened as a 10-point dog and were hovering around +9.5 for the large majority of the week … until this morning.
It took a while for the big bettors to come in on Russ the underdog, but, per Sports Insights’ bet signals, Seattle got steamed at +9.5 shortly after 9:30 a.m. ET, pushing their line to +8.5/8 around the market.
However, about two hours later, the script was flipped. Buyback came in on the Rams and came in hard. A steam move caused the Rams to move back up to -9.5/-10 in the blink of an eye.
If we look at our betting percentages, it’s the Seahawks who are getting 53% of spread bets at the time of writing (check out live data here).
The narrative of “trendy dogs get slaughtered” has not applied to NFL teams getting at least a touchdown, as they’ve gone 50-42-2 ATS since 2003 when getting at least 51% of spread bets, per our Bet Labs data.