Koerner’s Week 5 Fantasy Football QB Tiers: Where to Rank Patrick Mahomes vs. Jags
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes
- Sean Koerner -- the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in 2015, 2016 and 2017 -- takes a detailed look at his Week 5 quarterback tiers.
- Use the strategies outlined below to build the most optimal starting lineup for your fantasy football team.
Below you’ll find my quarterback tiers for Week 5 fantasy football. These are based on standard scoring.
As a reminder, these tiers are not updated after publication. If you want my most up-to-date rankings for PPR, Standard and Half-Point PPR leagues, check out this post.
Koerner’s Quarterback Tiers
Cam Newton (vs. NYG)
Ben Roethlisberger (vs. ATL)
Aaron Rodgers (@ DET)
With Patrick Mahomes facing the stingy Jaguars defense this week, he opens up the door for others to rent out Tier 1 for the week. Newton, Big Ben and Rodgers are all in great spots this week, and I expect all three to have big games.
Tom Brady (vs. IND)
Deshaun Watson (vs. DAL)
Drew Brees (vs. WAS)
Patrick Mahomes (vs. JAX)
Matt Ryan (@ PIT)
Philip Rivers (vs. OAK)
Figuring out where to rank Mahomes this week is tricky. Since I base my rankings on the projections I meticulously create for each player in the Fantasy Labs Models it helps take at least some of the guess work out of it. Right now he’s coming in as my QB7, which seems about right.
The Jaguars have a stranglehold on opposing quarterbacks this year and should give Mahomes some issues. I fully expect Mahomes to throw his first interception of the season this week, but I’m still starting him with confidence as a mid-range QB1 this week.
His skill set and weapons make him matchup-proof.
The rest of the tier are shoo-in QB1s.
I love Matt Ryan this week in what should be a shootout in Pittsburgh. We have seen Deshaun Watson reach his ceiling much more often when Will Fuller is in the lineup.
It’s worth monitoring Fuller’s status this week, but with the emergence of rookie Keke Coutee last week with an 11-catch debut, it’s comforting to know Watson may have another weapon behind DeAndre Hopkins if Fuller were to ever miss a game.
Matthew Stafford (vs. GB)
Jared Goff (@ SEA)
Andy Dalton (vs. MIA)
Jared Goff’s projections have been on the lower end due to his lack of rushing stats and the high TD share he has to cede to RB Todd Gurley. Not anymore. The Rams are potent enough on offense to provide fantasy value for their RB and all three WRs.
Goff gets to be in the driver’s seat with all of this production, which makes him one of the higher-floor QBs every week.
Alex Smith (@ NO)
Blake Bortles (@ KC)
Kirk Cousins (@ PHI)
Smith and Bortles are in blow up spots this week in road matchups that could force them to throw a ton.
Leonard Fournette is set to miss Week 5, and I always give Bortles a massive boost in any game Leo misses. This week is no different.
Cousins has a tough road matchup this week against the Eagles. It may be a week to bench him with plenty of options above who would be safer plays.
Carson Wentz (vs. MIN)
Russell Wilson (vs. LAR)
I can’t recommend either QB here in 12-team leagues. Wentz and Wilson have been struggling enough that I think they need to be viewed more as high-end QB2s going forward.
They are mid-range QB2 this week, as they both face tough pass defenses at home.
Andrew Luck (@ NE)
Joe Flacco (@ CLE)
Derek Carr (@ LAC)
Luck’s shoulder survived a 62-pass-attempt game in which he was also allowed to throw a Hail Mary (although it didn’t look pretty). This improves my long-term outlook for him, but you should pass on him this week with his trusty WR T.Y. Hilton out. He may also be without safety valve TE Jack Doyle again.
Joe Flacco is certainly having the breakout season I expected with his increased motivation following the Ravens’ first-round selection of QB Lamar Jackson.
One thing to monitor: Baltimore is increasing Jackson’s snaps under center (nine in Week 4) with Flacco lined up out wide, essentially giving him the play off.
The 2018 season has started to develop this sort of QBBC with Flacco/Jackson and even Brees/Taysom Hill. It is certainly something we need to monitor, as I’m worried Jackson/Hill could potentially take snaps inside the red zone.
This will suppress Brees and Flacco’s TD shares in my model, which is never a good thing in terms of fantasy.
Ryan Tannehill (@ CIN)
C.J. Beathard (vs. ARI)
Marcus Mariota (@ BUF)
Baker Mayfield (vs. BAL)
Dak Prescott (@ HOU)
Keep an eye on Beathard. The real-life drop off value from Jimmy Garoppolo to Beathard is worth roughly six points in my power ratings.
But in terms of fantasy, Beathard looks much more comfortable this year and is in the driver’s seat of a Kyle Shanahan offense. His rushing ability gives him every-week QB2 upside. He’s a great spot start in 2QB leagues this week.
Case Keenum (@ NYJ)
Eli Manning (@ CAR)
Josh Allen (vs. TEN)
Sam Darnold (vs. DEN)
Josh Rosen (@ SF)
No reason to mess with this Tier unless you happen to be in a 2QB dynasty league.
One tidbit to monitor: Case Keenum may be on a short leash soon. Chad Kelly has potential to be a sneaky QB2 in the event Denver gives him the nod to start at any time this season.<!–more–>