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Seahawks-Cowboys Betting Preview: Will Dallas Continue to Struggle as a Home Favorite?

Jan 06, 2019 7:25 PM EST
Credit:

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Russell Wilson, Ezekiel Elliott

NFL Playoffs Betting Odds: Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys

  • Spread: Cowboys -2
  • Over/Under: 43
  • Time: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

>> All odds as of Thursday evening. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting Market

The Seahawks have been trendy among public and sharp bettors. They’re getting the slight majority of spread bets, but have also been hit by a steam move that dropped them from +2.5 to +1.

Seattle is back at +2 at the time of writing (see live odds here).

The over was hit by early money as big bets pushed the line from the opener of 41 to 44 in just about 12 hours, but that might have been an overreaction.

Buyback on the under has dropped it back down to 43, with 60% of the tickets and 66% of the money on the over. Mark Gallant

Trends to Know

The under has gone 3-0 in Russell Wilson’s three wild-card appearances, failing to hit the total by 13.7 points per game with opponents scoring 14 or fewer points in each matchup. Evan Abrams

Since 2003, the over has gone 640-519-21 (55%) in non-division games with low totals (44 or fewer points) in which wind is blowing at <9 mph or the game is being played in a dome.

If the over/under has increased by one or more points (like this one has), it’s still been profitable to bet the over: 137-106-3 (56%). John Ewing

The Cowboys have gone 35-23-1 (60%) against the spread as an underdog under Jason Garrett compared to 32-45-3 (42%) ATS as a favorite, per our Bet Labs data.

As a home favorite, Dallas has gone 17-32-1 (35%) ATS under Garrett, including 0-2 ATS in the playoffs. Ewing

Officiating report: Walt Anderson will be the head official at AT&T Stadium. Here are home team results for playoff games he’s officiated over the past decade. Abrams

  • 2015: Patriots (-7) over Jets, 45-7
  • 2014: Colts (+2) over Chiefs, 45-44
  • 2010: Vikings (-2.5) over Cowboys, 34-3
  • 2009: Cardinals (+3.5) over Eagles, 32-25

Biggest Mismatches

When Cowboys have the ball: WR Amari Cooper vs. CB Shaquill Griffin

Although his boom-or-bust ways followed Cooper to Dallas, he has never been better. His Pro Football Focus receiving grade of 81.2 and 80.6 receiving yards per game since being traded from Oakland are both career-high marks.

Lining up mostly out wide on the right side of the formation, Cooper is likely to face Griffin for the majority of snaps.

Although Griffin had a promising rookie campaign in 2017, he’s since regressed. On 605 coverage snaps this season, Griffin has earned a subpar 51.9 PFF coverage grade and allowed a catch rate of 66.2%.

The Cowboys will likely look to run the ball early and often. Cooper has also been held to receiving performances of 32, 20 and 31 scoreless yards since his massive 217-yard, three-touchdown onslaught in Week 14 — but he’s averaged 8.4 targets with the Cowboys, who have given him fewer than seven targets in a game only twice.

If the Cowboys commit to giving Cooper the ball, he should be able to produce against Griffin.Matthew Freedman

Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Amari Cooper

When Seahawks have the ball: WR Tyler Lockett vs. CBs Chidobe Awuzie & Jourdan Lewis

Lockett, who will likely face Awuzie and Lewis for the supermajority of his snaps, has had a quietly dominant campaign with 1,034 yards and 10 touchdowns from scrimmage on just 70 targets and 13 carries.