Seahawks-Broncos Betting Preview: Value on the Over/Under in Denver?

Seahawks-Broncos Betting Preview: Value on the Over/Under in Denver? article feature image
Credit:

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Von Miller

Betting odds: Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos

  • Spread: Broncos -3
  • Over/Under: 42.5
  • Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets.


Betting market: A whopping 81% of dollars wagered have come down on Denver in this matchup at the time of writing (see live data here).

That explains why this line has ticked off the opener of Broncos -2.5 up to the key number of 3.

Over the past week, some sportsbooks have dropped this number to -2.5, and each time Denver money has showed up to knock it back to -3.PJ Walsh

Key matchup: It’s obvious, but important: The Broncos’ defensive line will dominate an improved but still very poor Seahawks offensive line. Germain Ifedi vs. Von Miller. Enough said. — Stuckey

Trends to know: Denver comes into this game having won its last six season openers. The Broncos are 38-19-1 (.664) in Week 1, which is the best mark in NFL history.

One theory why: The altitude in Denver gives the Broncos a major home-field advantage early in the season as players are still rounding into shape.

Again, this is just a theory, but I’m not sure it’s factored into the line enough, and a semi-small sample size supports my hypothesis: Since 1980, the Broncos are 28-13-1 against the spread (61%) at home in the first two weeks of the season. Stuckey

Broncos-Seahawks is tied for the second-lowest over/under in Week 1 (42.5 points).

There has been value betting the over in non-divisional games with a low total (44 or fewer points) where wind is not a factor (less than 10 MPH).

The over is 615-499-21 (55%) in those games since 2003. — John Ewing

I’ve got some good and bad news for Seahawks bettors this weekend.

The good news is that Russell Wilson is 14-5-1 ATS (+8.5 units) in his career as an underdog, and the Seahawks are covering the spread by 6.8 PPG.

The bad news is that Wilson is 7-15-1 ATS (-8.3 units) with more than seven days to prepare, including 1-10-1 ATS (-9.1 units) in this spot since 2015. — Evan Abrams

Injury watch: The Seahawks’ offense is expected to have RB Rashaad Penny (hand), WR Doug Baldwin (knee) and WR Tyler Lockett (leg) despite each dealing with injuries during training camp,

But Seattle’s offensive line could be an even bigger issue than normal if RT Germain Ifedi (ankle) and RG D.J. Fluker (hamstring) ultimately can’t suit up.

While all-world FS Earl Thomas (holdout) reported to the team on Wednesday, it’s still unclear if he’s in good enough shape to play Sunday. The defense is already without starting LB K.J. Wright (knee). — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: Thomas finally ended his holdout Wednesday, but his status remains uncertain going into Sunday. The Seahawks’ new-look secondary might be better named the Legion of Doom, as Richard Sherman (49ers) and Kam Chancellor (retired) have been replaced by unproven commodities.

Emmanuel Sanders might be in the best position to thrive, as he’s expected to work primarily from the slot this season. New Broncos quarterback Case Keenum is an upgrade in the Broncos’ post-Manning era, and he fed Adam Thielen — the Vikings’ primary slot option — a team-high 8.9 targets per game in 2017. Sanders costs just $5,000 on DraftKings and carries a strong +2.74 Projected Plus/Minus. — Ian Hartitz

Bet to Watch: I love this Broncos defense, and the Seahawks’ D is on the decline. Add in multiple questions on offense outside of Wilson — O-line, Baldwin’s knee, a lackluster running game — and I think Denver extends its Week 1 winning streak to seven games.

I’ll roll with Denver -3.Stuckey