Seahawks-Broncos Betting Preview: Value on the Over/Under in Denver?

Sep 07, 2018 04:05 AM EDT
Credit:

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Von Miller

Betting odds: Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos

  • Spread: Broncos -3
  • Over/Under: 42.5
  • Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets.


Betting market: A whopping 81% of dollars wagered have come down on Denver in this matchup at the time of writing (see live data here).

That explains why this line has ticked off the opener of Broncos -2.5 up to the key number of 3.

Over the past week, some sportsbooks have dropped this number to -2.5, and each time Denver money has showed up to knock it back to -3.PJ Walsh

Key matchup: It’s obvious, but important: The Broncos’ defensive line will dominate an improved but still very poor Seahawks offensive line. Germain Ifedi vs. Von Miller. Enough said. — Stuckey

Trends to know: Denver comes into this game having won its last six season openers. The Broncos are 38-19-1 (.664) in Week 1, which is the best mark in NFL history.

One theory why: The altitude in Denver gives the Broncos a major home-field advantage early in the season as players are still rounding into shape.

Again, this is just a theory, but I’m not sure it’s factored into the line enough, and a semi-small sample size supports my hypothesis: Since 1980, the Broncos are 28-13-1 against the spread (61%) at home in the first two weeks of the season. Stuckey

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model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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